从灰色到绿色：为电力未来优化钢铁运营

Fromgraytogreen Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness. 03 Executivesummary 05 Risingdemandforgreensteel 09 Reinventinghowdata,AI,ITandOTaredesignedanddeployed 11 Transforming waysofworking 14 Securing arobust,cost-effectivesupplyofscrapmetalandrenewableenergy 17 Renewable energy 19 Greensteelpresents auniqueopportunity Fromgraytogreen|Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness 2 Contents Contents|Executivesummary|Rising|Reinventing|Transforming|Securing|Renewable|Auniqueopportunity2 Fromgraytogreen|Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness Executivesummary Thesteelindustryisshiftingfromgraytogreen.Withclientsintheenergy,construction,automotiveindustriesandbeyondcommittingtonetzero,demandforgreensteelisrisingfast. Inresponse,steelmanufacturersareinvestingbillionstoreplacetheirdecades-oldblastfurnaces(alsoknownasbasicoxygenfurnacesor“BOFs”)withdirectreductionofiron(DRI)usinghydrogenandelectric arcfurnaces(EAFs).EAFsteelproductionisalreadysoaring,andit’sexpectedtoincreasebyafurther80-100%by2050.1RegulationsliketheEuropeanGreenDealandtheEU’sCarbonBorderAdjustment Mechanism(CBAM)couldfurtheracceleratethisshift. Butthere’sacatch.EAFprojectsarecurrentlyconcentratedinEuropeandNorthAmerica.ForcompaniesinthesemarketstocompeteagainstrivalsinChinaandIndia,whereBOFsteelmakingremainsprevalent,theyneedtostartgeneratingsufficientquantitiesofgreensteelatmuchlowercosts. That’seasiersaidthandone.EAFsdoofferseveraloperationaladvantagesoverBOFs,suchasgreaterpotentialtoplanandstandardizemaintenance.Andtheyprovideflexibilitytorampoperationsupordowndependingoncustomerdemandandmarketconditions. ButtheswitchtoEAFsalsopresentssignificant challenges,including: •Integratingthenewbatch-basedEAFswithlegacydownstreamsteel-makingassetsthatfollowcontinuousmanufacturingprocesses •Movingtoscrapmetalasafeedstock,andmanaginghugevarianceinquality,supplyandcost •Securingrenewableelectricityandgreenhydrogeninsufficientquantitiesandatcompetitiveprices. Addressingthesechallengesmeansnavigatingadifficultlearningcurve.Steelmakershavenotimetospare,becausetheymustmeetcustomerdemandsforcertainpropertiesofsteelattherightprice,whileusingentirelydifferentproductionprocessesandfeedstocks.It’sanextremelytallorder. Contents|Executivesummary|Rising|Reinventing|Transforming|Securing|Renewable|Auniqueopportunity3 Fromgraytogreen|Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness Overcomingthesechallengesanddesigningforthefutureismission-critical.Specifically,companiesmust: •Reinventhowdata,AI,ITandOTaredesignedanddeployedrightacrosstheorganization.UnlesssteelmanufacturersupgradetheirbroadertechnologyinparallelwiththeEAFimplementation,there’sariskthatthey’llinvestbillionsinnewfurnaces,onlytofindthattheplantisobsoletebythetimeit’supandrunning. •Transformwaysofworkingbyreimaginingtheirapproachestoplanning,logistics,qualitymanagement,maintenance,safetyandmore. •Securearobust,cost-effectivesupplyofscrapmetalandrenewableenergy—thetwomaincomponentsnecessaryforproducinggreensteel.Thisincludesmanagingvariablequality,supplyandpriceinthehighlyfragmentedscrapmetalmarket,andseekinggreaterengagementwiththeenergyecosystem. Thebottomlineisthattheshifttogreensteelisagame-changingopportunityforsteelmanufacturerstotransformcompetitiveness.Rightnow,companiesarefocusingcloselyonwhichfurnacetobuy. However,sinceDRIandEAFaresourcedfromahandfulofsuppliers,theimplementationof thesetechnologiesprovideslimitedscopetogaincompetitiveadvantage.Instead,steelmanufacturersmustlookatthebiggerpictureandcontemplatehowtheywillusetechnologymorebroadlytodrivecompetitivedifferentiationinthenextgenerationofthesteelindustry.That’sthefarmoreexciting—andchallenging—prospect. Contents|Executivesummary|Rising|Reinventing|Transforming|Securing|Renewable|Auniqueopportunity4 Fromgraytogreen|Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness Risingdemand forgreensteel Mostcompaniesthatpurchasesteelha committedtoreachingnetzero.Butthey’llonlybeabletoachievethesetargetsiftheycanbuysufficientquantitiesofgreensteelatcompetitiveprices. v e Contents|Executivesummary|Rising|Reinventing|Transforming|Securing|Renewable|Auniqueopportunity5 Fromgraytogreen|Howtobuildacompetitivegreensteelbusiness Thishaspromptedthesteelindustrytotransform—especiallyintheEU.SteelmanufacturersareinvestingbillionstomovefromBOFstoDRIusinghydrogenandEAFs.This shiftmayacceleratefurtherwithregulationsliketheEuropeanGreenDealandCBAM. Figure1:ProjectedgrowthofEAFsteelmaking,2019-2050 Mt Globally,110newEAFprojectswithacombinedvalueof $95+billionwereannouncedbetween2020and2022.2AndEAFsteelproductionisprojectedtorisehigherstill,increasingafurther80-100%by2050(seefigure1). Sofar,mostEAFprojectsareconcentratedinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Thisposesatoughquestionforsteelmanufacturersinthesemarkets:HowcantheycompeteagainstrivalsinplaceslikeIndiaandChina,whereBOFsteelmakingremainsprevalent? 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 IEABaselineWoodMackenzie GlobalEnergyMonitorWorldSteelDynamics EAFproduction 20192050 Sources:WorldSteelDynamics“Strat