互联网女皇340页AI报告：人工智能趋势报告（双语翻译版）

BONDMay 2025Trends –Artificial Intelligence Trends–Artificial Intelligence (AI)May 30, 2025Mary Meeker / Jay Simons / Daegwon Chae / Alexander Krey Mary Meeker / Jay Simons / Daegwon Chae / Alexander Krey ContextWe set out to compile foundational trends related to AI. A starting collection of several disparate datapoints turned into this beast.Vint Cerf, one of the ‘Founders of the Internet,’ said in 1999, ‘…they say a year in the Internet business is like a dog year –equivalent to seven years in a regular person's life.’ At the time, the pace of change catalyzed by the internet was unprecedented.Consider now that AI user and usage trending is ramping materially faster…and the machines can outpace us.The pace and scope of change related to the artificial intelligence technology evolution is indeed unprecedented,as supported by the data. This document is filled with user, usage and revenue charts that go up-and-to-the-right…Creators / bettors / consumers are taking advantage of global internet rails that are accessible to 5.5B citizens viabreakthrough large language models (LLMs) that–in effect–found freedom with the November 2022 launch ofIn addition, relatively new AI company founders have been especially aggressive about innovation / product releases / investments /acquisitions / cash burn and capital raises. At the same time, more traditional tech companies (often with founder involvement) haveincreasingly directed more of their hefty free cash flows toward AI in efforts to drive growth and fend off attackers.The outline for our document is on the next page, followed by eleven charts that help illustrate observations that follow.We hope this compilation adds to the discussion of the breadth of change at play–technical / financial / social / physical / geopolitical.Special thanks to Grant Watson and Keeyan Sanjasaz and BOND colleagues who helped steer ideas and bring this report to life.And, to the many friends and technology builders who helped, directly or via your work, and are driving technology forward. 12.1Source: Leading ChipmakerInternet vs. Leading USA-Based LLM:Total Current Users Outside North America0ShareofTotalCurrentUsers,%2005NumberofDevelopers,MM0%50%100%InternetLLM90%@ Year 390%@ Year 23图表胜过千言万语 ⋯⋯感觉变化比以往任何时候都快？是的，确实如此AI 用户+使用量+资本支出增长=前所未有领先芯片制造商生态系统中的开发者注意：LLM 数据为月度活跃移动应用程序用户数据。截至 5 月 25 日，该应用程序在包括中国和俄罗斯在内的部分国家 / 地区不可用。来源：联合国 / 国际电信联盟（ 3/25 ），Sensor Tower （ 5/25 ）年限 Charts Paint Thousands of Words…Seem Like Change Happening Faster Than Ever?Yes, It IsAI User+ Usage + CapEx Growth=UnprecedentedDevelopers in Leading Chipmaker’s Ecosystem12.1Source: Leading ChipmakerDetails onPage 38Internet vs. Leading USA-Based LLM:Total Current Users Outside North AmericaNote: LLM data is for monthly active mobile app users. App not available in select countries, includingChina and Russia, as of 5/25.Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union (3/25), Sensor Tower (5/25)0Years InShare of Total Current Users, %Details onPage 566MM20052025Number of Developers, MM0%50%100%InternetLLM33Years In90%@ Year 390%@ Year 23 AI Monetization Threats =Rising Competition +Open-Source Momentum +China’s Rise5Leading USA LLMs vs. China LLMDesktop User ShareNote: Data is non-deduped. Share is relative, measured across six leading global LLMs.Source: YipitData (5/25)DesktopUserShare,%2/242/254/2575%60%10%0%USA–LLM #1ChinaAI Model Compute Costs High / Rising +Inference Costs Per Token Falling =Performance Converging + Developer Usage Rising3Cost of Key Technologies Relative to Launch Year%ofOriginalPriceByYear(IndexedtoYear0)Note: Per-token inference costs shown.Source: Richard Hirsh; John McCallum; OpenAI0 Years⋯ 图表胜过千言万语 ⋯ …Charts Paint Thousands of Words…AI Monetization Threats =Rising Competition +Open-Source Momentum +China’s Rise5Leading USA LLMs vs. China LLMDesktop User ShareNote: Data is non-deduped. Share is relative, measured across six leading global LLMs.Source: YipitData (5/25)Desktop User Share, %2/242/254/2575%60%10%21%15%0%Details onPage 293USA–LLM #1ChinaUSA–LLM #2AI Model Compute Costs High / Rising +Inference Costs Per Token Falling=Performance Converging + Developer Usage Rising3Cost of Key Technologies Relative to Launch Year% of Original Price By Year(Indexed to Year 0)Note: Per-token inference costs shown.Source: Richard Hirsh; John McCallum; OpenAIDetails onPage 1380 Years72 YearsElectric PowerComputer MemoryAI Inference5.1China vs. USA vs. Rest of World Industrial Robots InstalledNote: Data as of 2023.Source: International Federation of RoboticsIndustrial Robots Installed4Leading USA-Based AI LLM Revenue vs. Compute ExpenseNote: Figures are estimates.Source: The Information, public estimatesRevenue (Blue) &2014 Note: Data as of 2023.Source: International Federation of Robotics2014中国 vs. 美国 vs. 世界其他地区工业机器人安装量 AI & Physical World Ramps =Fast + Data-Driven6A Ride Share vs. Autonomous Taxi Provider,San Francisco Operating Zone Market ShareSource: YipitData (4/25)8ChangeinUS