Guardant的Shield检测现已纳入NCCN指南

F26E(25.2)5.3(14.4)42.1060.0043%DecNA5,2165,82412M55.412.542.9 RatingOutperformPrice TargetGHAdjusted EPSGH (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.On May 30ththe National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), one of the main guidelineauthorities in the US, updated their colorectal cancer screening guidelines to include arecommendation for blood-based testing:EXHIBIT 1:NCCN added blood-based CRC screening to its guidelines on May 30thSource: NCCN guidelines for colorectal cancer screening, p.36Inclusion in these guidelines wasn’t necessarily expected to happen this year, and is amodestly positive catalyst for Guardant (the stock was up 4% on the day, vs. tools index down1%). Here we highlight three important takeaways on this guideline inclusion:1) NCCN guidelines are a positive sign for Shield’s potential, but they are not likelyto make a real impact on revenues the way that American Cancer Society (ACS)guidelines could.ACS guidelines are particularly important because ~10 states with ~20%of the population have state-specific laws requiring that private payors cover colorectalcancer screening endorsed by ACS; for that reason, if Shield is included in ACS guidelinesthis summer, some private payor coverage for Shield would be established without having towait for a USPSTF determination in 2027+. NCCN guidelines could still put some pressureon private payors, but it is likely to take longer and make a smaller impact than ACS.2) The screening interval is set at once every three years,consistent with both the FDA’sand Guardant’s recommendations. In the past, Exact has suggested that a blood-based testwould need to be done annually to be on the “efficient frontier” for USPSTF modeling, andwith Shield’s $1,495 price this would be cost-prohibitive for payors.(Continued on next page)See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 04:05 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 22:49 UTC F24AF25EF26E(2.01)(1.99)(1.67)FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRRevenues (M)7398861,09921.9%Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$55$50$45$40$35$30$25$2006/24 We argued in our USPSTF mini-primer that there is in fact reason to believe that USPSTFcould endorse a three-year screening interval, and the NCCN guidelines reinforce this belief.3) Blood-based testing is clearly designated by NCCN as a second-line test.As areminder, the FDA approved Shield as a first-line test, though some cautionary languagepositions it as some level of de-facto second-line test (from the label: “Based on data fromclinical studies, Shield has limited detection (55%-65%) of Stage I colorectal cancer anddoes not detect 87% of precancerous lesions. One out of 10 patients with a negative Shieldresult may have a precancer that would have been detected by a screening colonoscopy”).The NCCN guidelines go a step past cautionary language to an explicit statement that thetest is only recommended “for individuals who would not be willing to undergo screeningthrough another modality.” However, Guardant’s management team has long positionedShield as some version of second-line, as have we in our market model. For that reason wesee the NCCN language as a negative for Guardant, but not a major one.US LIFE SCIENCE TOOLS & DIAGNOSTICS INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe maintain our Outperform rating on Guardant.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingGHOUSDSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.US LIFE SCIENCE TOOLS & DIAGNOSTICS 2 Jun 2025ClosingPrice42.105,935.94 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYGuardant Health IncWe arriv