再生元制药公司（REGN）：我们为何对REGN的LAG3组合相对于BMY的差异化持怀疑态度

2024A14,202.0-45.05-14,149.03.1x2.9x 2025E2026E12,835.213,753.247.4014,935.23.2x --2.9x Akash Tewari * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 284-3416 | atewari@jefferies.comAmy Li, PharmD * | Equity Analyst+1 (332) 236-6802 | ali8@jefferies.comPhoebe Tan * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8356 | ptan1@jefferies.comAnastasia Parafestas * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-6648 | aparafestas@jefferies.comKatherine Wang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8985 | kwang4@jefferies.comManoj Eradath, MBBS, Ph.D. * | EquityAssociate+1 (202) 707-6443 | meradath@jefferies.comZaki Molvi, PhD * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2726 | zmolvi@jefferies.com The Long View: Regeneron PharmaceuticalsInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferDespite the macro environment, REGN hit 3 home runs within a short period:1) HD Eylea data, 2) COPD, 3) Eylea IP win. Dupi well exceeded the buy-sidebar (20% COPD exacerbation reduction), showing a 30% reduction & 83mLFEV1 benefit over pbo. We think COPD could be a ~$4Bn opportunity for Dupi.Additionally, we think investors need to track the HD Eylea switch + get clarityIRA's impact on HD Eylea.Base Case,$804, +65%•Price Target: $804•Dupixent has ~$19.5Bn risk-adj WW sales (SNYantibody collaboration revenue).•~$2.7Bn risk-adj pipeline revs (ex-HD Eylea).Sustainability MattersTop Material issue: 1)Access & Affordability.As a global leader in biotechnology, RegeneronPharmaceuticals has a robust pipeline of products that spans eye disease, inflammatory diseases, cancer,and cardiovascular and rare diseases. It is critical for the company to continue to deliver innovativeproducts that cover the needs of patients in those areas.2)GHG Emissions.Regeneron set goals forGHG emissions.Company Target(s):REGN's long-standing commitment to corporate responsibility is crucial to achievingits mission of delivering vital medicines to patients in need. REGN's responsibility strategy focuses onusing the unique knowledge and expertise to address the issues that matter most to its business andstakeholders. The corporate philosophy of ‘Doing Well By Doing Good’ guides its approach.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Do you have plans to expand your rare-disease/ gene therapy franchise?2)How will youincorporate ESG into design and offerings of products/services and life cycle management?ESG Sector Deep Dive: HealthcarePlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View14001300120011001000900800700600500400Upside Scenario,$1300, +166%•Price Target: $1300•Dupixent has $25Bn risk-adj WW sales (SNYantibody collaboration revenue).•~$4Bn risk-adj pipeline revs ex-HD Eylea (ex-HDEylea and Itepekimab).•IP side for Eylea (No biosimilars entry in '24).•~$2Bn risk-adj revs for Itepekimab (pre-SNYprofit share).•More aggressive market share for HD Eylea Downside Scenario,$650, +33%•Price Target: $650•Dupixent has $14Bn risk-adj WW sales (SNYantibody collaboration revenue) with aggressiveerosion post LOE•~$200Mn risk-adj pipeline revs (ex-HD Eylea)•Aggressive switch to Eylea biosimilar•High cash burnCatalystsAugust 19, 2025:HD Eylea PDUFA for RVO & Q4W2H25: Fianlimab+libatyo Ph.3 melanoma data2H25:data from Ph.2 study of semaglutide incombination with trevogrumab with and withoutgaretosmab1Q26:initial results from Ph.2/3 study of fianlimabin combination with Libtayo in 1L NSCLC 2 •480/480mg Q4W rela/nivo showed 68.8% DCR, which is slightly higher than 160/480mg rela/nivo DCR of 63.2%,but was worse on mPFS,showing 26.8mo vs 33.3mo- the low dose PFS seems to be driven by efficacy in LAG3 >=1% group (mPFS 34.1mo LD vs 31.3mo HD). As wenoted (HERE), we think fianlimab's potentially more effective LAG3 blockade & REGN's prior Ph.1 1L melanoma data suggest higher ORR (~65%)& DCR (~80%) vs BMY's Ph.3. The lack of mPFS improvement w/ higher rela dose suggests this may not lead to clinical differentiation•On safety, all TRAEs + discontinuations (d/c) were higher for 480/480mg (88.3% TRAEs, 29% d/c) vs 160/480 (79.2% TRAEs, 19% d/c). Gr3/4TRAE rates look similar between 480/480 vs 480/160 doses,with 34% vs 36% of pts w/ Gr3/4 TRAEs. There was 1 death (immune-mediatedlung disease) in the 480/480 arm determined to be treatment-relatedPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 3 Income Statement.Source: Jefferies analysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionRegeneron PharmaceuticalsRegeneronPharmaceuticals,Inc.is a biotechnology company that engages in the discovery,invention,development,manufacture,andcommercialization of medicines.Company Valuation/RisksRegeneron PharmaceuticalsOur PT is DCF-based. Risks include commercial, regulatory, and clinical.Analyst Certification