美国食品行业货币追踪：下半年前景改善

Scott Marks * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8007 | smarks1@jefferies.comNatasha Baker * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8278 | nbaker@jefferies.com Figure 1 - Our Currency Tracker suggests an improving currency backdrop through 1H 2026.(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%1Q113Q11Source: Jefferies Research, FactSetOur select currency basket includes EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, BRL, MXN, CNY, HKD, JPY, AUD, and INR. Forecasts are based upon an average of USD spot exchange ratesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 2 - Y/Y gains vs. USD in RUB (+12.1%), CHF (+4.5%), JPY (+3.7%), and GBP (+3.7%) are likely to be thehighest-impact currency tailwind drivers for U.S. based companies in 2025.12.1%4.5%3.7%(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%RUBCHFJPYSource: Jefferies Research, FactSetFigure 4 - Percentage change in currency relative to USD vs. 1 week ago.1.6%0.4%0.4%(4%)(3%)(2%)(1%)0%1%2%RUBEURCHFAverage Currency Relative to USD (1 Week % Change)Source: Jefferies Research, FactSet.Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 6 - Percent change in currency relative to USD vs. 3 months-ago.13.5%7.9%6.0%(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%RUBCHFMXNEURAverage Currency Relative to USD (3 Months % Change)Source: Jefferies Research, FactSet.Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jefferies Currency Forecasts by CompanyIn the following tables, we estimate the currency exposure for each company by its reported segments. Our currency forecasts are based on geographically weighted country exposure and USD spotexchange rates. The currency impact is based on our estimated weighted country exposure for each segment in a company. The delta between our estimates and reported currency impact varies foreach company.Figure 8 - Jefferies Coverage FX Sheet (Calendar Year Companies).201320142015201620172018Hershey (December Year End )Total Company(0.7%)(0.9%)(2.2%)(0.8%)0.1%(0.3%)Reported FX Impact/JEF est.(0.3%)(0.6%)(1.6%)(0.7%)0.2%(0.2%)Variance0.4%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.1%0.1%Kellanova (December Year End)Total Company(0.7%)(0.9%)(6.8%)(3.2%)(0.6%)0.4%Reported FX Impact/JEF est.(0.7%)(0.8%)(7.5%)(8.0%)0.2%(0.4%)Variance(0.0%)0.1%(0.8%)(4.8%)0.8%(0.8%)Kraft Heinz (December Year End)Total Company(0.2%)(0.6%)(4.0%)(1.3%)(0.1%)0.4%Reported FX Impact/JEF est.(0.2%)(0.9%)(5.2%)(2.5%)0.0%(0.6%)Variance0.0%(0.3%)(1.2%)(1.2%)0.2%(1.0%)Mondelez (December Year End)Total Company(1.8%)(4.0%)(11.1%)(5.8%)(0.4%)(2.2%)Reported FX Impact/JEF est.(2.4%)(5.1%)(12.6%)(4.6%)0.3%(1.4%)Variance(0.6%)(1.1%)(1.5%)1.2%0.7%0.8%Nomad (December Year End)Europe(1.1%)0.1%1.6%(2.4%)(1.4%)(1.2%)Total Company(1.1%)0.1%1.6%(2.4%)(1.4%)(1.2%)Reported FX Impact/JEF est.(1.4%)1.6%0.0%(2.8%)(1.9%)(1.0%)Variance(0.3%)1.5%(1.6%)(0.4%)(0.5%)0.2%Source: Jefferies Research, company filings, FactSet, GlobalDataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 201920202021202220231Q242Q243Q244Q2420241Q252Q25E3Q25E4Q25E2025E(0.5%)(0.9%)0.5%(0.8%)(0.1%)(0.3%)(0.8%)(0.8%)(1.0%)(0.7%)(1.3%)(0.4%)(0.1%)0.4%(0.3%)(0.3%)(0.5%)0.4%(0.2%)0.2%0.3%0.1%(0.4%)(0.5%)(0.1%)(0.9%)0.2%0.4%(0.1%)0.6%0.3%0.6%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.4%(2.1%)(1.1%)2.1%(4.1%)(0.5%)(0.7%)(2.2%)(1.8%)(2.3%)(1.7%)(2.8%)0.3%0.7%2.1%0.1%(1.3%)(1.5%)0.8%(3.5%)(4.1%)(8.9%)(8.1%)(6.8%)(8.6%)(8.0%)(4.3%)0.7%(0.4%)(1.3%)0.6%(3.6%)(8.2%)(5.9%)(5.0%)(6.3%)(6.3%)(1.5%)(1.3%)(0.1%)1.6%(2.6%)(0.7%)(0.6%)(1.2%)(0.5%)(0.9%)(0.8%)(1.4%)0.4%0.3%1.1%0.1%(1.9%)(0.6%)1.1%(2.0%)(0.9%)(0.6%)(1.0%)(0.4%)(0.8%)(0.7%)(1.6%)(0.6%)(0.5%)(0.5%)0.6%(0.2%)0.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%(0.2%)(5.3%)(4.2%)0.9%(6.8%)(3.2%)(4.3%)(6.3%)(5.6%)(6.1%)(5.6%)(5.2%)(1.1%)(0.5%)1.8%(1.2%)(4.5%)(2.5%)1.7%(6.7%)(3.5%)(1.5%)(2.6%)(1.4%)(2.6%)(2.0%)(3.7%)0.8%1.7%0.9%0.1%(0.3%)2.8%3.7%4.2%3.5%3.6%1.5%(0.3%)(0.5%)1.3%(0.2%)(1.7%)0.3%0.3%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.3%0.5%(0.3%)(0.5%)1.3%(0.2%)(1.7%)0.3%0.3%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.3%0.5%(0.1%)(0.8%)1.4%0.2%(1.4%)0.8%0.6%0.5%1.2%0.8%0.6%0.2%(0.4%)0.1%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.3%(0.1%)0.5%0.3%0.2%5 Figure 9 - Jefferies Coverage FX Sheet (Fiscal Year Companies).Campbell Soup (July Year End)Total CompanyReported FX Impact/JEF est.VarianceConagra Brands (May Year End)Total CompanyReported FX Impact/JEF est.VarianceGeneral Mills (May Year End)Total CompanyReported FX Impact/JEF est.VarianceMcCormick (November Year End)Total CompanyReported FX Impact/JEF est.VarianceSmucker (April Year End)Total CompanyReported FX Impact/JEF est.VarianceSource: Jefferies Research, company filings, FactSet, GlobalDataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 11 of this report.This report