Gxo物流（Gxo）：Gxo与倍数扩张案例：运输股还是商业服务股？

2023A2024A2025E9,778.011,709.012,708.89,778.011,709.012,975.7741.0815.0848.4741.0815.0860.1 2026E13,497.613,903.4934.3959.8 Stephanie Moore * | Equity Analyst(615) 934-1384 | smoore@jefferies.comJoseph Hafling * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8707 | jhafling@jefferies.comPJ Sullivan * | Equity Associate+1 (646) 805-5461 | psullivan@jefferies.comSource: Company filings, Jefferies The Long View: GXO LogisticsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Valuation attractive, given IFRS-adjusted multiple pure-play internationalpeers are trading at 10x-15x EBITDA.•Shifting trends in e-commerce and demand for next-day delivery providelong runway for solid organic growth in contract logistics.•Leading position in most markets served and largest global pure-playlogistics provider.•Margin-enhancement opportunities through first-mover advantage on techinvestments.•Investment-grade credit rating and low leverage provide M&A catalysts.Base Case,$58, +43%•3-6% organic revenue growth in 2025 with ~$2bn from M&A.•Customer volumes are flat to down in 2025.•~$2.5bn in sales pipeline, supporting gross winsof $1bn+ annually.•EBITDA of $860mm expected for 2025, withcontinued growth in 2026 to $960mm.•Price Target of $58 is based on ~11x our 2025EBITDA estimate of $860mm and 10x our 2026estimate $960mm.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1) GHG emissions:As the largest pure-play contract logistics provider, GXOcan leverage its automation/robotics expertise to improve order fulfillment accuracy and reduce GHGemissions. This includes GXO’s carbon footprint, and its ability to reduce emissions by optimizing logisticsfor its customers.2) Employee Health & Safety:An inclusive work environment and emphasis onemployee safety are important factors for labor recruitment and meeting the needs of its customers.These are critical areas of focus for GXO given it’s a company of more than 100k people worldwide.Company Targets: 1)30% GHG emission (Scopes 1 and 2) reduction by 2030 vs. 2019 baseline.2)50%renewable energy globally by 2030. 2) 100% carbon-neutral (Scopes 1 and 2) by 2040.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Do you believe your emphasis on GHG emission reduction and your proven expertise withautomation can help drive new contract wins going forward?2)What is the margin effect from a reductionin labor costs due to greater safety measures, robotics usage, and favorable employee morale?2024 Transportation & Logistics Sector ESG IntegrationPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$75, +85%•Outsourcing trends pick up faster thanexpected.•EBITDA margin expansion is faster thanexpected through automation.•New contract wins result in higher-than-expected organic growth.•Price Target of $75 is based on 13x upside 2025EBITDA of $870mm and 11.5x our upside 2026estimate of $1.00bn. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View807570656055504540353020252024Downside Scenario,$35, -14%•Company doesn't hit organic growth targets.•Customers begin in-sourcing.•Loss of customer contracts.•Price Target of$35 is based on 7.5x ourdownside 2026 EBITDA estimate of $900mm.Catalysts•M&A•New contract wins•Organic growth coming in higher than expected•Significant hiring in Logistics or any signs ofoutsourcing picking up 2 GXO's Valuation in the Lens of Transport and Business Services Peer:Investors who have followedthe GXO story since its spin-off from XPO in 2021 have been met with a persistent dilemma: withouta pure-play public peer, what should GXO be valued at? Compared to the broader transports peergroup (of which GXO's legacy investor and analyst base are familiar with), GXO trades at a significantdiscount. While margin profile is often touted as a potential reason for this, we highlight in Figure 4that margin alone has no direct correlation to valuation multiple. Instead, transport valuations areoften grouped by characteristics such as industry consolidation/fragmentation and asset intensity.This is why railroads, LTLs, TL, and brokers/forwarders trade similar to each other but vary widelyacross mode. In this way, transports investors like to have a clearly defined peer set, which GXOdoes not within T&L.Figure 3 - GXO 2025 EV/EBITDA vs. Transport & Logistics Peer Group.8.5x6.6x8.4x8.6xSource: FactSet, JefferiesWhile an imperfect comparison, if we had to choose a peer group within T&L it would be the asset-light 3PLs (such as brokers and forwarders) given the similar asset intensity and margin profile.Recall that unlike asset-intense names likes truckers or rails, who must invest as much as 10-20%of sales in capex for equipment and real estate, GXO's capex/sales is ~3%. We also note that GXO'sHSD-DD% EBITDA margin profile is also more in-line with the asset-light 3PL group as well. Comparedto this peer group, we see GXO as widely undervalued at just 8.5x EV/EBITDA vs. the asset-light groupat 14x-20x. This being said, while it's likely the closest