欧元区利率与利润率追踪- 2025年4月

Restricted - External European BanksPOSITIVEEuropean BanksFlora Bocahut+33 (0)1 4458 3131flora.bocahut@barclays.comBBI, ParisPaola Sabbione+39 (0)2 6372 2579paola.sabbione@barclays.comBBI, MilanAman Rakkar, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 1425aman.rakkar@barclays.comBarclays, UKCecilia Romero Reyes+44 (0)20 7116 7314cecilia.romeroreyes@barclays.comBarclays, UKNamita Samtani, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 2583namita.samtani@barclays.comBarclays, UKGrace Dargan+44 (0)20 3555 4065grace.dargan@barclays.comBarclays, UKKrishnendra Dubey+91 (0)22 6175 1719krishnendra.dubey@barclays.comBarclays, UKRachel Wilson+44 (0)20 7773 1752rachel.wilson@barclays.comBarclays, UKDibin Meledath Koruthu, CFA+ 91 (22) 6175 2514dibin.meledathkoruthu@barclays.comBarclays, UKAmeya Rajesh Khandekar+91 (0)22 6175 1145ameyarajesh.khandekar@barclays.comBarclays, UK household, Austria saw the greatest decrease MoM at -12bps, and for agreed maturity corporatedeposits, Ireland saw the greatest drop (-17bps MoM).See Figures 7-9.Loan & deposit beta.The loan beta (looks at repricing of the stock of loans vs. ECB rate) for theEZ increased 3ppt in April to 50%, we calculate. It increased mainly for Portugal (+5ppt) andBelgium (+4ppt). In April, the deposit beta for the EZ (looks at repricing of the stock of depositsvs. ECB rate) increased slightly to 31% (vs. 30% in March). At the country level, it increased MoMin all regions (except Austria and Italy), but especially in France, Belgium and The Netherlands.See Figures 10-12.Customer NII & NIM.At the EZ level, the customer NIM was +1bps MoM in April at 2.25%, andwas up +3bps YoY also. The customer NII was slightly up (+0.4%) MoM in April at EZ level, withlower interest income (-1% MoM) more thanoffsetby lower interest expense (-5% MoM). Bycountry, the customer NIM increased MoM mainly for The Netherlands and Belgium anddecreased mainly for Spain. On a MoM basis, the customer NII improved mainly in TheNetherlands (+5.1%) and Belgium (+3.1%) while it declined the most in Spain (-2.1%) andGreece (-1.8%). If these trends are confirmed, they could signal an acceleration in NII pressure inthese countries in Q2.SeeFigures 13-17.Our Industry view and best ideas.We are positive on European Banks, with current prices notreflecting the structural improvements of banks, in our view, evenafterthe recent rally. We havereflected in our forecasts a 1.5% ECB terminal rate, yet we expect sector EPS to be resilient (-2%in '25, +7% in '26),after+54% in '22-24. We identified our preferred European banks as thosescreening best under these four criteria: 1) low P/E – high yield, 2) EPS growth, 3) TotalShareholder Return 4) our EPS forecasts vs consensus. Our preferred European banks are BNP,DBK, LLOY, SAN and GLE. See our report European Banks: Sweet spot, despite risks. We alsoupdated our views postUS-tariffsin this report: European Banks: Highertariffsbring macro riskback.2 FIGURE 1. LTM evolution of mortgage & corporate loan rates - new production (front book) & stock (back book), Eurozone and main constituentFIGURE 2. LTM evolution of mortgage & corporate loan rates - new production (front book) & stock (back book), Eurozone and main constituentJul '24Aug '246.40%5.69%5.40%5.41%4.08%4.08%3.69%3.69%5.28%5.13%5.27%5.24%3.44%3.59%3.06%3.05%4.60%4.56%3.93%3.93%3.88%3.84%2.62%2.63%5.11%5.22%5.42%5.37%3.70%3.55%4.51%4.45%4.76%4.79%4.43%4.41%3.33%3.38%3.62%3.60%Loan ratesMortgage & Corporate rates, for front book & back book Sep '24Oct '24Nov '24Dec '24Jan '254.08%5.07%5.19%5.56%5.05%5.14%5.08%4.98%4.84%4.86%3.99%3.86%3.94%3.73%3.73%3.64%3.59%3.58%3.56%3.56%4.90%4.70%4.53%4.40%4.13%5.18%5.06%4.95%4.76%4.56%3.31%3.27%3.23%3.11%3.12%3.03%2.98%2.94%2.91%2.84%4.34%4.22%4.30%3.99%3.73%3.87%3.78%3.78%3.76%3.70%3.85%3.73%3.71%3.65%2.77%2.64%2.65%2.66%2.66%2.66%4.97%4.57%4.46%4.30%4.24%5.28%5.20%5.08%4.81%4.73%3.48%3.40%3.30%3.21%3.24%4.35%4.25%4.14%4.00%3.88%4.56%4.32%4.23%4.04%3.87%4.33%4.25%4.17%4.01%3.93%3.26%3.20%3.04%2.90%2.89%3.55%3.49%3.41%3.32%3.23% countries (Table 1/2)Source: Barclays Research, ECBcountries (Table 2/2)May '24Jun '24Feb '25Mar '25Apr '25IrelandCorporate Frontbook5.83%5.52%5.66%5.92%5.41%Corporate Backbook5.60%5.47%4.82%4.67%4.66%Mortgage Frontbook4.12%4.08%3.70%3.69%3.67%Mortgage Backbook3.72%3.69%3.54%3.51%3.48%ItalyCorporate Frontbook5.38%5.26%3.99%3.92%3.77%Corporate Backbook5.37%5.30%4.48%4.37%4.25%Mortgage Frontbook3.61%3.55%3.18%3.14%3.27%Mortgage Backbook3.10%3.09%2.82%2.79%2.75%NetherlandsCorporate Frontbook4.25%4.55%3.64%3.74%3.62%Corporate Backbook4.00%3.95%3.63%3.52%3.49%Mortgage Frontbook3.79%3.80%3.55%3.46%3.04%Mortgage Backbook2.60%2.61%2.67%2.68%2.68%PortugalCorporate Frontbook5.55%5.35%4.27%4.06%4.02%Corporate Backbook5.49%5.44%4.64%4.50%4.41%Mortgage Frontbook3.82%3.74%3.18%3.13%3.06%Mortgage Backbook4.61%4.56%3.78%3.68%3.58%SpainCorporate Frontbook5.05%4.87%3.89%3.54%3.49%Corporate Backbook4.47%4.43%3.91%3.89%3.68%Mortgage Frontbook3.47%3.37%2.87%2.80%2.74%Mortgage Backbook3.67%3.64%3.19%3.13%3.07%Source: