Quadient — 2025年第一季度销售：2025年第一季度有机下降，但利润率方面有令人安心的信息

F24AF25EF26E2.472.442.50----2.58FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRRevenues (M)1,0931,0861,0970.2%EBIT (M)123.00132.35132.093.6%Reported EPS1.922.102.166.0%Valuation MetricsF24AF25EAdjusted P/E (x)6.86.9EV/EBIT (x)10.810.1Div Yield (%)4.14.4Close Date3 Jun 2025QDT.FP Close Price (EUR)Price Target (EUR)Upside/(Downside)52-Week Range23.10/14.34EDM1,429.05FYEDiv YieldMarket Cap (EUR) (M)EV (EUR) (M)PerformanceYTD1M6MAbsolute (%)(10.0)(0.7)1.4EDM (%)18.62.314.8Relative (%)(28.6)(3.0)(13.4)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YR€24€22€20€18€1606/2409/2412/2403/2506/2512001300140015001600QDT.FPEDMwww.bernsteinresearch.com DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:Quadient: quarterly revenues€mSales% Change% OrganicMail% Change% OrganicDigital% Change% OrganicLockers% Change% OrganicSource: Quadient, Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingQDT.FPOOLDEDMESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYQuadientTo arrive at our PT of EUR22.40, we value Quadient using a 60/40 combination of a DCF with a 10.0% WACC and 1% terminalgrowth rate, and a SOTP method valuing the Digital segment on a 2.50x EV/Sales FY1, the Parcel segment on a 2.25x EV/SalesFY1, and the Mail segment on a 0.78x EV/Sales FY1.RISKSQuadientDownside risks: 1) unexpected acceleration in the drop in mail volumes as mail related business accounts for c. 70% of totalrevenue; 2) the non-mail related businesses fail to grow significantly; 3) dollar weakening vs the euro (c.40% of sales)RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments.Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandEUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).7 The Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceS