拉丁美洲利率策略：剖析地方政府债券发行

Dissecting localgovernmentbond issuance Latin America ◆Fiscal considerations are emerging,tariffsconcerns arediminishingbut still present Mario RoblesHead of LatAm Rates StrategyHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.mario.robles@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4119 ◆We still see local curves steepening,withBrazil the exception ◆We maintain ourMexico5’s10’sF-TIIEsteepener, our Rec 5YBrazil PRE-DI andalso keep our Pay 5Y ColombiaIBRvs Rec5YChile Camaratrade ideas Tariff noise isdeclining…but fiscal considerations are emerging Tariff noise is no longer the main market concern in the region, but fiscal noise isemerging. Colombia continues to lead this new episodeof public coffers concerns,followed more distantly by Mexico. Chile is improving its fiscal visibility for the yearsto come. Brazil’s fiscal outlook, after many months of discussions, seems to havesomewhat stabilized,and under some scenarios, it maypleasantlysurprise fixedincome markets. We dissect local government bond issuance YTD We find that countries are moving at different speeds when issuing this year. Forinstance, Brazil and Colombia are issuing at a faster pace than Mexico and Chile withrespect to expected yearly issuancetargets.We also find differencesin issuancebymaturity bucket, with Chile issuing more ST bondsvs its own historical patternswhileMexicoisslowly moving away from this practice. Brazil continues to concentrate itsissuance in the belly of the curve while Colombia keeps its tradition of issuing long-datedbonds.(Seepage4.) Mexico:Focus now shifts to anemic growth, a situation that may spillover intofiscalperformance;we see a steeper local yield curve shape. Brazil:After many months of discussions, there are some scenarios that may bringstability to fiscal concerns. We see long-dated yields offering value. Chile:Market’sfocus is on pinpointing the exact moment for monetarypolicyeasingresumption;July seems to be the sweet spot in this discussion. Colombia:Fiscal considerations remain key;we see LT yieldsunderperforming andlocalyield curve steepening continuing. Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Contents LatAm rates strategy4 Dissecting local debtissuance in LatAm4The preferred maturitybuckets to issue5Conclusion7 Country views8 Mexico9Brazil10Chile11Colombia12 13 Appendix Table 4: Emerging MarketCentral Bank monitor14 Closed trade history15 Disclosure appendix16 Disclaimer19 Views & trade ideas LatAmratesstrategy ◆We dissect local government bond issuance YTD…◆…and find that Brazil and Colombia are issuing faster than Mexico andChile vs expectedissuing targets◆Bymaturity bucket, Chile isissuing more ST bills, Mexico is slowlymoving away from ST issuance, Brazil is issuing largely in the bellyofthe curveand Colombia prefers long-dated bonds Dissectinglocal debt issuance in LatAm Approachingthemid-year mark presents a timely opportunity to turn our attention to local debtgovernment bond issuancein the LatAm region and evaluate its trajectory and developments.WeanalyzedYTD issuance trends observed in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, andcompared them to the patterns of recent years.In what follows,we present the findings of ourexamination, first at a high-level overview of the issuance progressvs expected issuancetargetsin the beginning of theyear,and then adetailedanalysis according to maturity segmentand security type. Our aim is to provide investors a comprehensive description ofthe manner inwhichgovernments have beentapping local bond markets to obtain funding in 2025. Table 3depicts theexpectedgross issuanceto becarried out by the four countries in 2025,based on figures announced by the respectiveMinistries of Finance(Brazil, Chile, andColombia) or, in the absence of such announcements, estimated by our models (Mexico). Wecompute thegross issuanceconducted year to date innominal and percentage terms vsestimates and by maturity/product buckets. First, we take a look atBrazil. The largest economy in the region, Brazil, is looking to issue anestimated BRL1,401bn as per the annual borrowing plan published by the Brazilian Ministry ofFinance. A major chunk of this financing needsis attributed to theBRL1,300bnofdomesticfederal debt that is maturing in 2025. So far, the total amount of local debt issuance in Brazilhas reached BRL986bn which isabout70%of the estimated figure.This is notasurprisingamountbecauseasizeable portion (BRL246bn) of that supply has been absorbed by the BCB. Moving to the next largest economy in the region,Mexico,issuance has been more paced thanin other countries as per our analysis. However, we believe this makesMexico’sissuancepattern more predictable andeasier to forecast, a feature thataddsvaluefor investors.Furthermore, when there is a possibility ofthe central bank(Banxico)being able to reduceinterest rates further andthe Ministry of Finance may be in a position toissue debt at a morefavourable yield, it isprudent that the issu