欧洲宏观追踪：包罗万象

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Falling inflationleaves little doubt fora June ECBratecut……but resilient growthshould reduce the urgency to cut furtherPolitics and fiscal policyalso in focus this weekin EuropeFurther disinflationarydrivers leavelittle doubtforaJuneECBcut(Charts 1-6)Eurozone inflationdroppedto 1.9% y-o-yin May, led by servicesfallingsharplyfrom4.0% to 3.2%–thelowest in over three years. Granted, the timing of Easter and fewerholidays in May relative to2024likely played a role (Eurozone inflation (May, flash),3 Jun).Servicesinflationmomentum remains high though, andtheJunedatashouldprovide a clearer picture.Butcombined with negotiated wagesfallingfrom 4.1% inQ424to 2.4% in Q125,it should reinforce theECB’s confidencethat inflation willrevertto2%sustainably.Indeed, downward revisions toinflationinitsJune forecastcould openthe doortoanotherratecutlater in the year(ECB Preview (Jun), 22 May).Encouraging signsofgrowth despite ongoing US tariff risks(Charts 7-17)Looking across countries, it does notappearthatexportsfront-loadingahead of UStariffswas themainreason fortheupside surprise in eurozone growth in Q1,pointingtoimprovingunderlying momentum. Strong tourismin April shouldsupportgrowth inQ2,whilethe PMIsfor May(eurozone and UK)were revised up into expansionaryterritory.Credit growthis picking up, withsignsof a housingrecovery(seeEurozonehousing market, 4 Jun)as looser monetary conditions work their way into theeconomy. Even Italylooksto have left behind thedragfrom the‘Superbonus’housingtax creditscrapped in 2024. Granted, plenty of uncertainty remains on UStrade policy,with50%steel and aluminiumtariffsandlimited progress to date on a US-EU tradedeal. Butthe labour marketistight–the unemployment rate fell to an all-time low6.2% inthe eurozoneinApril, and job creation was strongin May in Spain.Absent asharpdeterioration of the outlook,June may well be the final cut of the cycle.Politicsandfiscalinfocus(Charts18-23)More fiscal support ison the way, withGermany having approveda EUR46bn taxbreak package for firmsandthe UK set to back NATO’spush for members to spend3.5% of GDP on defence (FT, 4 Jun).Italy’s cash borrowing needs through Maycloselytrack last year’s, pushing up issuance needs (Italy surprisingly announced a5Y and 12Y green bond issuance, perhapspartlyin response to last week’s relativelylow takeup of the latest retail bond,atEUR6.5bn). In France, the state deficit in Aprilwas muchlower than last year. This is welcome news giventhefiscal challengesahead, but comparability issues mean we should wait for May for a clearer picture.Meanwhile, Bulgaria issetto join the eurozone from 2026,whilethe governmentcollapsedin the Netherlands afterthefar-right Freedom Party quit the ruling coalition.New elections will follow, which arelikely to lead to another stalemate, according topolls (Dutch politics, 3 Jun).The country’ssolid fiscal position should limit possiblemarketconcerns,even if the EuropeanCommission expects the deficit to widen.Combined with the victory of nationalist Karol Nawrockiinthe Polish presidentialelectionon Sunday(Poland, 2 Jun),thiscould slow the decision processinthe EU.Europe macro trackerA bit of everything ◆◆◆ Disinflationary process continues5.The eurozone unemployment rate fell againin April, led by sharp drops in Italy andFranceSource: Macrobond,Eurostat,HSBC1.Eurozone inflation fell below 2% in May asservices inflation fell from 4.0% to 3.2% y-o-ySource:Macrobond, Eurostat, HSBC3.Energy prices have picked up a little sinceearly May but remain relatively low…Source: Macrobond,ICE, ECB, HSBC_______________________________________________________________________________We acknowledge the assistance ofSahil Kumar, HSBC Bank plc, in the production of this report 6.Absent a sharp deterioration of the outlook, wethink that the June ECB cut might be the lastSource:Bloomberg, HSBC forecasts1.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.25Dec-24Apr-25Aug-25Dec-25Apr-26Aug-26Dec-2604-JunHSBC forecasts%Source:Macrobond,ECB,Eurostat, HSBC4.…while the euro’s recent appreciationis not yetadding downward pressure on core goodspricesSource:Macrobond, ECB, Eurostat, HSBC Encouraging signs ofgrowth10.Jobcreation was still positive in May inSpain even though slower after April’s boom…Source:SpainMinistry of Labour, HSBC7.From the individual countrydetailsof Q1 GDP, net trade was a significant contributor togrowthonlyin Germany, while consumption and investment look better (other than in France)Source: Macrobond, Eurostat, HSBC8.The final PMIs for May were revised up fairlysharply in some countries…Source: Macrobond,HCOB/S&P Global PMIs,HSBCJan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0%m-o-mConsumptionInvestment-1.2-0.8-0.40.00.40.81.2GermanyEurozone: Contributionto quarterly GDP (Q1 2025)ppt 311.…wh