欧洲宏观追踪：企业担忧，家庭状况坚挺

Europe macro tracker Corporate concerns, households holding up ◆US tarifffearscould be weighing oneurozonebusinessconfidence, and Treasury volatility might be affecting the UK… Chris HareSenior Economist, Eurozone, UK and IrelandHSBC Bank plcchris.hare@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 2995 ◆…butEuropeanhouseholds seem fairly unruffledso far,providing a degree of resilience to the growth outlook ◆Eurozone disinflation remains on track, consistent with ourexpectationof anECB ratecut next month When America sneezes,Europeanbusinesses catch a cold…(charts 1-6)US trade and fiscal policy concerns continue to loomlargeover the global economy.On trade, Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods–now delayedfrom 1 June to 9 July–couldhave a major disinflationary impactif implemented, inour view. Prior to that announcement, there werealreadysignsof a drag onconfidence, with a further softening in the eurozone PMIs in May.But the evidence isnot entirely clear cut–the UK PMI showed a strong rebound in businessexpectations,while the German ifo saw a decent legup across sectors. On US fiscal policy,the good news isthat long-term bond yields in the eurozone haveremainedlargely immuneto concerns in the US Treasury market relating to PresidentTrump’s ‘big,beautifulbill’. But the UK is a clear exception–with governmentdepartmentscurrentlyhagglingover departmentalbudgetsin the Spending Review,Chancellor Rachel Reeves will no doubt bewary offurther rises in borrowing costs. …buthouseholds stay largely symptom-free(charts 12-17) If European businesses are feeling fearful, householdsremain fairly unruffled.Consumer confidence surveys rebounded in May (though admittedly, before the 50%UStariff threat). Perhaps the ongoing upward march of real household income ishelping offsetgeopolitical concerns. And there are some signs that consumers arebecoming more willing to spend that extra income. Indeed, the Germanhouseholdsavingratiofell by almost 1ppt over the turn of the year. And in April, UK retail salesgrowth jumped above 5% y-o-y–possiblya signthat consumerswillstart closing thec.10% shortfall in durable goods spending versus pre-pandemic levels. Eurozone disinflation broadly on track (charts 12-17) Further disinflation is showing up in the eurozone data. While the eurozone’sMayinflation print is not due until 3 June,the French number surprised to the downside,falling from 0.9% to 0.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, negotiated pay data for Q1 lend furtherweight to the notion that we are past peak wage inflation. But on the other hand, theECB’ssurveyofhouseholds’ near-term inflation expectations has edged up further. US tariff risks notwithstanding, we think these data are consistent with our forecast foranECB deposit rate cut to 2.00% in June, which we still think might be the last.Granted, markets remain a little more dovish. Butas Chief Economist Philip Laneargued this week (27 May),things would have to get much worse for the ECB totakerates into what he sees as ‘clearly accommodative’ territory–ie,sub-1.5% levels. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which formspart of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Mixed evidence of US contagion to Europe 1.If a 10% US tariff has a material impact onEurope, a potential 50% tariff is a big risk Source:HSBC Consumer fundamentals remainresilient Eurozone disinflation broadly on track Source: Macrobond,ECB, Eurostat, HSBC Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s)appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Chris Hare Important disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer tobuy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to