阿尼科鹰矿业公司（AEM）：关于基本金属投资的思考

NORTH AMERICA | Metals & MiningAgnico Eagle Equity ResearchJune 4, 2025 So, About the Whole Base Metals Thing A few weeks ago, AEM announced a ~$65M follow-on investment in ForanMining, owners of the Mcllvenna Bay copper-zinc project in Canada. While theinvestment is immaterial to AEM, it made us think about AEM's various foraysinto base metals over the past few years. Are these investments a way tosocialize the idea of AEM ultimately acquiring a base metals company? We don'tthink so. We see more one-off equity investments or a project-level acquisitionat most. Is AEM preparing investors for a large base metals acquisition to come? We don't think so. Morelikely to see continued one-off equity investments or a project-level acquisition at most.Someinvestors we speak with point to “all the base metals investments” Agnico Eagle has made over thepast few years as signaling a large base metals acquisition to come – potentially even acquiring abase metals company. It's certainlypossiblethat AEM decides to acquire a base metals companyto diversify its revenues, which is helpful through commodity cycles, or because management isfundamentally bullish on copper long-term (most investors are too). But we think is a low probabilityevent and if it does happen, most investors would not be supportive from a strategy perspective, inour view. Part of AEM's appeal and why it trades at a premium is that it has an easy-to-understandstrategy: Canada-focused gold producer. Venturing outside of gold in any meaningful way (the SanNicolas JV doesn't really count) would add complexity and start a debate about the right valuationmultiple. What is more probable in our view is AEM continuing to make one-off equity investmentsin base metals or a project-level acquisition at most, particularly situations where it can leverageits operational experience in a specific region–San Nicolas is an example of this. In short, we don'tsee Agnico Eagle going the way of Barrick and making big moves in copper (and also changing itsname to reflect this strategy shift). Has AEM actually invested a lot in base metals? Not really.Headlines over the past few yearsmight make it seem like AEM is investing significantly in base metals, but collectively it's a smallamount (Exhibit 1). The only exception would be the San Nicolas JV with Teck announced in2022, which we discuss below. To us, the San Nicolas partnership was unique in a few ways.First, at the time of the deal, AEM had a declining gold business in Mexico with Pinos Altosproducing ~100kozpa in 2022, after production peaked at 185koz in 2015. Second, AEM hasextensive experience operating in Mexico while Teck does not. AEM has been in Mexico for 19years. Third, once fully ramped up, San Nicolas copper will make up only 6% of AEM's revenue, soit's small enough not to disrupt AEM's gold-dominant revenue mix (Exhibit 2). How copper exposure impacts gold miner valuations.We look at the relationship betweenvaluations and miner exposure to both gold and copper. While our dataset is limited, Exhibit 6suggests gold miners may benefit from remaining pure plays. Fahad Tariq, CPA, CA * | Equity Analyst(416) 637-2372 | ftariq@jefferies.com David Hove, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (416) 847-7397 | dhove@jefferies.com Giovanni Holmes * | Equity Associate+1 (416) 847-7402 | gholmes@jefferies.com The Long View: Agnico Eagle Investment Thesis / Where We Differ We see Agnico Eagle as a high-quality miner trading at a fair valuation. Whilewe see upside at Malartic and in the Abitibi the growth profile is not ascompelling as some peers. Downside Scenario,$85, -31% Upside Scenario,$151, +23% Base Case,$116, -5% We use a $2,500/oz long-term gold price and a5% discount rate and run custom discounted cashflow analysis on all mines. We apply premiummultiples for quality. Our base case target is basedon blended P/NAV and EV/EBITDA multiples. Gold performs better than expected while costsbeyond the guidance window remain flat, allowingfor margin expansion. Our upside scenario targetisbased on blended P/NAV and EV/EBITDAmultiples. Marginscontinue to contract with downwardpressure on gold prices and no relief on costs. Ourdownside scenario target is based on blended P/NAV and EV/EBITDA multiples. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Gold price upside.Improving unit cost outlook.Shaft sinking progress and ramp-up of productionfrom Odyssey.Ongoing exploration results at Hope Bay with aview to delineating AEM's next new mine.Exploration results at former Kirkland Lake assetsincluding Fosterville and Macassa. Top Material Issues 1.Scope 1, 2 and 3 GHG emissions reduction.2.Minimizing recordable injuries and significant incidents across operations.3.Social and economic development of local and Indigenous communities. Company Targets 1.30% absolute Scope 1 and 2 carbon emission reduction by 2030 from 2021 levels(-350ktpa CO2e) (of which over half, or -190ktpa CO2e, is expected to come fromrenewable energy solutions).2.2