杰富瑞医疗保健会议第一天：安捷伦和沃特世

USA | Life Science Tools & Diagnostics Day 1 @ Jefferies HC Conf: A & WAT We hosted fireside chats with the mgmt. teams of Agilent and Waters at ourH'care Conference. A struck an upbeat tone post 2Q print, including areas likeACG, PFAS, NASD and China stimulus while 2026 OPM has opportunity toovershoot the LPR (+50-100 bps "plus"), in our view. WAT highlighted robustinnovation engine, and no biopharma pull forward on instrument side, but someincreased production and depleting of safety stocks on the chemistry side. A (CEO, CFO)1) ACG:Solid growth (+7% ex. timing in 2Q) supported by recent reorganization,which now includes consumables, software, automation, and services (where 70% of contractsgrowing +DD), with enterprise service (now ~$150M revs) expected to accelerate into 2H25;2)PFAS:Post ASMS, A highlighted its unique position in PFAS testing (~$100M run-rate business),split 50/50 between environmental/forensics and other testing areas (e.g. food packaging, semi).Importantly its GC offering taps into vastly under-penetrated air testing market, which is poised tomove toward 8-12% of market (vs 2% today) with A well positioned to benefit given high win ratehere (50%);3) NASD:Expect ~10% growth for '25 and increased visibility into '26 with bookings solidand commercial programs ramping, supporting 20%+ growth in 2H (easier 3Q comp and sequentialstep-up into 4Q) underwritten by production plans in place today...meanwhile, on margins, expectcommercial growth to support higher incremental margins (already accretive to business on OPM);4) China stimulus:Sized round 2 of stimulus as $120M split across 3 pockets (administration/regulatory, GCC customers, and EPA) with funnel suggesting they will see orders in 4Q25 (likely atlower win rate than prior or 30% vs. 50%) and revenues in 1Q26 (implies $40M or +60bps of coregrowth next year);5) OPM:2H25 will absorb tariff impact (GMs likely flat sequentially vs 1H), but itexpects to see more meaningfully OMX in '26 (and beyond) tied to tariff mitigation, but also pricingand mix. It also noted there is certainly an opportunity to overshoot the LPR (+50-100 bps "plus")as it relates to FY26, representing potential upside (Street: +90bps y/y). WAT (CEO) 1) Biopharma pull forward:On instrument side, pretty cut and dry that there was nopull forward benefit (in 1Q) as funnel of the beginning of the year (very strong) was consummatedat the end of the quarter as planned, however on the chemistry side WAT noted it did see increasedproduction in Ireland (and other sites) which drove consumption and depleting of safety stocks asthere was rush to produce more;2) Reshoring:Expects to see some benefit from the $200B+ ofbiopharma re-shoring announced, it cautioned not all is incremental (or relevant for LCMS) withview it could see ~$50M of spend tied to this (our sense more cumulative than annual number) andareas like fill/finish likely to see impact sooner (than greenfield, etc.);3) Service:1Q trends (+3%)partly impacted by 2 fewer days (-2% headwind), with delta (+5% adjusted) to LT growth (+6-7%) tiedto 3rd party multi-vendors that depleted spare part inventory; however it expects this to come backsooner rather than later;4) China:Demand backdrop here remains muted, with short term outlookpretty modest due largely to generics (~50% of mix) softness, while mid-term growth was not muchbetter (+L/MSD), however uptick in out-licensing by large pharma could be tailwind over LT (5-10yrs);5) Empower:Shift from an on-premise to a SaaS based subscription model should enhancerecurring revenue and deliver meaningful cash flow benefits;6) ASMS:Anecdotes decidedly upbeat,with innovation engine chugging along nicely (more here). Tycho Peterson * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 738-5583 | tpeterson2@jefferies.com Matthew Stanton * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8397 | mstanton@jefferies.com Jack Melick, CPA * | Equity Associate+1 (617) 345-8671 | jmelick@jefferies.com Priya Patel * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 204-0140 | ppatel5@jefferies.com Noah Kava * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3939 | nkava@jefferies.com Lauren Timmins, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (929) 237-2038 (mobile) | ltimmins@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks Agilent Technologies Our $120 PT represents a 10-year horizon in our DCF model and implies ~21x FY25E EPS and EV of ~17x EBITDA. Downside Risks: longer instrumentcycle, missed M&A opportunities, prolonged China recovery. Upside Risks: margins surprised to upside on cost-outs, larger buyback, NASD demandon commercial side snaps back. Waters Corporation Our $435 PT is supported by our DCF and implies ~23x '25E EV/EBITDA. Downside Risks: China demand structurally lower, margin expansion; Analyst Certification: I, Tycho Peterson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, r