澳大利亚国内生产总值：增长依然疲软；生产率仍然低迷

Jamie CullingEconomist, Australia, NZ &Global CommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedjamie.culling@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9006 5042Paul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia,NZ& Global CommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedpaulbloxham@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9255 2635Economics-Data ReactionsAustralia ◆◆◆ 2A notable feature of today’s print is the apparent caution being exhibited by consumers. Household consumptiondidrisein thequarter, but the pick-up remains tepid. The RBA had previously been expecting a stronger recoveryin household consumption, but inits most recent forecasts published in mid-May, it lowered its near-term consumption outlook, reflecting softer timely indicators.The ‘cautious consumer’ is notable because weak spending growth has persisted despite a stronger recovery in household realdisposable incomes. Household real disposable income rose by 1.7% q-o-q and 3.4% y-o-y in Q1. Disposable incomes have beensupported by the fall in inflation, strong jobs growth, and income tax cuts. Reflecting these patterns, the household savingratio roseto 5.2% (from 3.9% in the previous quarter), taking itbackcloserto its pre-pandemic levels.Some part of the weaker consumer spending may reflect erratic weather during the quarter. The housing affordability challengemayalso be playing a role (seeDownunder Digest:Rising housing prices to make affordability worse,22 May 2025). It is too early to seethe impact of the global trade policy shock, but this may play a dampening role in the coming quarters.Another feature of Australia’s growth over the past year has been the relative strength in public sector spending, while private sectoractivity has been tepid. Public demand contributed +1.0ppts to annual GDP growth in Q1. However, in the quarter,public demandweighed on growth for the first time in five quarters, reflecting a fall in public investment.Without the contribution from public demand and given the only tepid growth in private demand, overallq-o-qGDP growth slowed inthe quarter.Today’s print also showed no improvement in Australia’s labour productivity performance. Labour productivity (GDP per hour worked)was flat in the quarter, and down 1.0% y-o-y. As we noted recently, this means the supply-side of the economy is still constrained(seeDownunder Digest:Australia’s weakened potential, 7 May 2025), and is keeping unit labour costs growing at rates abovewhatwould beconsistent with the RBA’s target.For the RBA, today’s softer GDP growth print alone could encourage the RBA to move a bit faster-than-otherwise in lowering its cashrate.However, a key local indicator to watch in the coming period will be the monthly CPI indicator for May (to be published on 25June).The monthly print for April had the trimmed mean indicator at 2.8% y-o-y, suggesting underlying inflation in Q2 was still runningahead of the RBA’s forecast of 2.6% y-o-y.Global developments may also play a bigger role, with recent commentary from the RBA suggesting that much of their dovish tone oflate has reflected concerns about the downside risks to global growth and the possible impact on Australia.1. Annual GDP growth has been 1.3% y-o-yfor the past two quarters2. Public demand has been the maincontributor to annual growthSource:ABS; HSBCSource:ABS; HSBC-8-6-4-202468-8-6-4-20246820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026Australian GDP GrowthPercentage changey-o-yq-o-q%%-0.50.00.51.01.5ConsumptionDwelling InvestmentMachinery & EquipmentBuilding & StructuresOther InvestmentPublic DemandInventoriesNet ExportsGDPContribution to GDP by ComponentYear-ended change (%) Source:ABS; HSBC6. … leaving unit labour cost growth stilltoo highSource:ABS; HSBC-10-5051015199820012004% Source:ABS; HSBC5. Measured labour productivity was flat q-o-q in Q1, down 1% y-o-y …Source:ABS; HSBC9510010511011512012513020002003Productivity: GDP per hour workedIndex 4Disclosure appendixAnalyst certificationThe following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecastsexpressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Jamie Culling and Paul BloxhamThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitationof an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained within this document isbelieved to be reliable but we do not guarantee its completeness or accuracy.Any opinions expressed herein are subject tochange without notice.HSBC may hold a position in, buy or sell on a principal basis or act as a