这只猎鹰受到预期的束缚，但仍能飞得更高

2024A2025A2026E2027E3,055.63,953.64,776.15,785.43,055.63,953.64,785.35,815.53.093.753.464.573.093.753.494.78 Joseph Gallo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7402 | jgallo@jefferies.comBrent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comAnnick Baumann * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8068 | abaumann@jefferies.comAnjali Papadopoulos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8590 | apapadopoulos@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, Company Data, Factset The Long View: CrowdStrikeInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Endpoint is the area of software (not just security) where we hear moreabout competitive displacements than any other. CrowdStrike providesstate-of-the-art, next-generation endpoint technology with a foundationin its unique graph database and lightweight agent, which leveragesartificial intelligence and machine learning. Integrated technologies beyondendpoint will likely make CrowdStrike stickier than traditional endpointvendors.Base Case,$520, +6%•Emerges as one of the leaders in the market forendpoint security, even with increased macroheadwinds.•Continues to add modules, which expands theaddressable market and continues to strive forbroader platform adoption beyond endpoint.•Customers continue to purchase multiplesolutions,and the net retention rate staysconsistently around 120%.•$520 PT is DCF-derived and implies 22x EV/CY26E revenue.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: (1) Data Security.Cybersecurity companies play a crucial role both in takingresponsibility for maintaining data security and in ensuring customers have access to the products andservices required to achieve data security. We expect to see continued focus on data security with a threatlandscape that continues to grow.(2)Employee, Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion.We see companyculture as important in a labor market that continues to be defined by a skill shortage. Additionally, giventhe known underrepresentation of women and minority groups in the software industry today, a focus onbuilding a diverse workforce is cardinal.Company Target: (1)Goal of being carbon-neutral by 2030.Q’s to Mgmt: (1)When can we expect more definitive targets on how you aim to reduce your impact onthe environment?(2)How has the focus on data security by your customers changed over the past 24months?(3)What are some of the definitive actions you are taking to diversify your workforce?Software Sector ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$550, +13%•Emerges as the industry standard for endpointsecurity but also continues to add modules,which expands the addressable market andmaintains hypergrowth.•Successful expansion internationally resultsinoutsized growth for years,leading toimprovement in operating leverage.•Customers purchase more solutions thanexpectedand the net retention rate staysconsistently above 120%.•$550 PT is DCF-derived and implies 23x EV/CY26E revenue. Downside Scenario,$400, -18%•Revenue growth decelerates faster thanexpected due to increased competition andfurther macro pressure in the endpoint market.•Needs to make continued investments toremain relevant in the marketplace.•Thecompanyhascommissions on renewals, which decreasesfuture potential operating leverage.•$400 PT is DCF-derived and implies 17x EV/CY26E revenue.Catalysts•Successful expansion internationally resultsinoutsized growth for years,leading toimprovement in operating leverage•Acceleration of new customer growth andmaintaining strong gross retention rates•Continued successful execution of company’sland and expand strategy leads to continuedgrowth in net revenue retention (120%+) andoperating leverage. tocontinuepaying2 Valuation.Our PT of $520 is based on 54x Cons FY28 FCF.F2Q Sub Rev Guide.F2Q total rev guide missed cons by 1%. Mmgt noted that F2Q sub rev takes intoaccount $10-15M amortization impact ($10-15M also for each of F3Q/F4Q) due to partner incentivesresulting from CCP program. This impact is more pronounced but temporary in nature given the revimpact is amortized faster than the term of the contract. This was driven by the unexpected successfrom the partner CCP program which should ultimately benefit growth long term. It remains unknownto us how much of this headwind was incremental vs when guidance was given, but Managementnoted that it was more than it had previously expected.F1Q ARR Falls Short of Investor Bogey.CRWD reported F1Q ARR of $4.4B growing 22% yoy, beatingcons by 0.4%. CRWD added $194M of incremental ARR (down 8% yoy vs down 20% last Q) whichwas short of $200M investor expectations. This implies new business growth of down 1.4% yoy(accounting for churn) vs down 14% in F4Q on a 5 pt easier comp. We had previously noted that webelieved upside to cons was feasible but Investor expectations were elevated. We believe that somemacro, F1Q seasonality and potential F4Q CCP pull forward i