泰莱公司（TATE）：外汇因素加剧指引疲弱

Restricted - External TATE.L/TATE LNOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean ConsumerStaplesNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetGBp 720lowered -3% from GBp 740Price (23-May-25)GBp 545Potential Upside/Downside+32.1%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (GBP mn)2427Shares Outstanding (mn)445.43Free Float (%)82.9652 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)1.0Dividend Yield (%)3.63Return on Equity TTM (%)10.11Current BVPS (GBp)357Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-LSE52 Week rangeGBP 8.48-4.61Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean Consumer StaplesAlex Sloane+44 (0)20 3555 0645alexander.sloane@barclays.comBarclays, UKWarren Ackerman+44 (0)20 3134 1903warren.ackerman@barclays.comBarclays, UKSetu Sharda+ 91 (0)22 6175 1934setu.sharda@barclays.comBarclays, UK FX headwind assumptions across the business this results in a -4% cut to our FY26e adj-EPS andEBITDA by -3.1% which implies c6% constant FX growth.CMD should provide more granularity on synergies:Our synergy realisation assumptions areslightly more cautious than the company's targets for $50m cost synergies within two years andc10% CPK revenue synergies. If Tate were to fully achieve these targets, there could be a furthersignificant upside risk to our EBITDA and adj EPS . The CMD on 1 July will be followed by a sitevisit to a CPK pectin plant in Denmark - we expect this event to provide more granularity on themargin recovery opportunity as well as synergy opportunities.Risk/reward attractive:Tate's share price recovered meaningfully from April lows into the FY25results, meaning the weaker underlying EBITDA growth vs. consensus and sharper FXheadwinds resulted in a sharp share price pull back last week.On slightly reduced estimates toreflect updated FX, our DCF-based price target falls slightly to 720p, from 740p, withassumptions unchanged at 7.90% and 2.34% terminal growth. At CY26e 7x EV/EBITDA, Tate isstill trading near multi-year lows and again at a material discount to key peers Ingredion, AAKand Kerry on closer to 11x (see Figure 6), despite higher margins than all three and growthprofile that is no worse, in our view. Longer term to narrow this gap, we believe the clearopportunity is to deliver the CPK synergies and materially increase the percentage of theportfolio that is sold as solutions, and therefore at less risk of commoditisation. While there hasbeen no further news regarding the speculated (and unconfirmed) takeover interest in Tatefrom Advent in October 2024 (see FT reports Advent preparing a bid for Tate, 16 October), wethink the potential for renewed bid speculation likely provides at least a degree of downsideprotection to the share price and valuation.TATE.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (GBp)FY Mar20242025202620272028EPS55.7A45.7A45.9E53.9E59.4EPrevious EPS55.7A44.2E47.9E55.4EN/AConsensus EPS56.0A50.0A50.5E58.9E65.8EP/E9.811.911.910.19.2Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 23-May-2025; 21:19 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 The Story in 6 Key ChartsFIGURE 1. FBS OSG - modest price/mix give-backafterstrong FY23/24Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 3. CPK margin recovery could be the source of significantvalue creation; +100bps improvement in FY25 gives more confidenceon this front15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26eCP KelcoSource: Company data, Barclays Research estimates27 May 2025 FY27eFY28e FIGURE 5. Net debt/ EBITDA increased to 2.2x on CPK deal, which wasbetter than initially guided due to stronger cash generationSource: Company data, Barclays Research estimates27 May 2025 2025A2026EProformaOldNewChange£2,124£2,124£2,073-2.4%-2.2%-4.7%-4.3%-1.3%1.3%261 bps-5.5%-0.5%2.5%295 bps16.0%0.0%0.0%0 bps2.9%2.5%2.5%-5 bps£309£330£319-3.4%13.3%13.1%12.9%-24 bps£446£468£454-3.1%£338£332£327-1.3%15.9%22.0%21.9%-16 bps15.9%22.5%22.4%-14 bps284281280-0.5%-6-8-10605957-2.6%108137126-7.4%3500263275264-4.0%45.7 p47.9 p45.9 p-4.0%19.8 p18.0 p19.8 p10.3%961892873170177.3176114.0127.5124.4We present proforma FY25E as if Tate owned CPK for 12m.Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimatesForecast changesWe nudge up our FY26e FBS OSG assumption by +300bps to +2.5%. Including CP Kelco weassume group FY26e OSG +2.4% driven by volumes with pricing flat. On CP Kelco, updating forFX and separation cost results in -7% cut to FY26e EBITDA . We also slightly trim our FBSestimates on FX headwind. Overall we cut our FY26e EPS by c4%. 2027E2028EOldNewChangeOldNewChange£2,231£2,179-2.3%£2,313£2,260-2.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.2%4.3%13 bps4.4%4.5%8 bps6.1%6.1%-1 bps6.2%6.2%-1 bps-1.0%-1.0%0 bps-1.0%-1.0%0 bps3.1%3.1%-1 bps3.2%3.2%-1 bps£372£364-2.3%£399£390-2.2%13.7%13.7%0 bps14.2%14.2%1 bps£514£503-2.0%£540£530-2.0%£351£348-0.9%£369£366-0.9%23.0%23.1%8 bps23.4%23.4%6 bps22.9%22.8%-6 bps23.1%23.0%-8 bps300298-0.5%320318-0.5%-6-6-6-65756-2.7%5654-2.8%163156-4.5%171163-4.5%0000321312-2.7%357348-2.4%55.4 p53.9 p-2.7%60.9 p59.4 p-2.4%20.8 p20.6 p-0.9%22.8 p21.6 p-5.3%-2%779770-1%621616-1%-1%205.4194.7-5%261250-4%-