智利化学矿业公司（sqm）：一季度表现亮眼，未来需谨慎应对

2024A2025E1,483.51,391.53.8x8.2x8.7x1,485.51,412.4694.3577.9 2026E1,698.47.2x1,864.9784.1 Alejandro Anibal Demichelis * | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.comPedro Baptista * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.comFrancisco Barbosa ^ | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.com The Long View: SQMInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•SQM's low production cost puts the company at an advantage vscompetitors, helping it weather lithium price volatility.•The recent agreement with Codelco removes uncertainty around SQM,brings long-term visibility (the concession is to be extended to 2060),and creates opportunities to expand cost-competitive lithium production inChile.•SQM’s international expansion (Australia and China) could create furthergrowth opportunities in the medium term.•Its non-lithium business (iodine and potassium nitrates) brings earningsand CF stability.Base Case,$51, +61%•SQM’s lithium volumes grow ahead of themarket through 2030•SQM closes agreement with Codelco to extendAtacama lithium concession from 2030 to 2060•Lithium prices gradually recover as demandgrowth visibility improves•Iodine S/D remains tight•Tailwinds from potash volumesSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1)Business Model Resilienceis paramount, given unprecedented volatility inlithium prices and an industry that aims to double capacity every 3-4 years. 2)Water &WastewaterManagementissues are critical for SQM, protecting its low-cost production in Chile. 3)Business ModelResilience.An increasing focus on specialty plant nutrients aligns SQM’s agricultural business strategywith secular trends in favor of farm efficiency.CompanyTarget(s):1)Reduce brine extraction by 50%by 2030.2)Reduce continental waterconsumption by 40% by 2030 and 65% by 2040. 3) Carbon neutrality in all products (from the source tothe customer) by 2040 and by 2030 for lithium, potassium chloride, and iodine.Qs For Mgmt:1) How is SQM optimizing water use in the Salar? 2) How can the company prepare forclimate risk, particularly in the Salar? 3) How is SQM positioned in the nascent lithium battery recyclingindustry? 4) How does climate stress affect the outlook for SQM’s agricultural nutrition platforms?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View908070605040302020252024•Lithium spot prices increase to at least US•EV penetration accelerates further•SQM extends Atacama lithium concessionDownside Scenario,$20.4, -36%•Political issues in Latin America reduce miningactivity•Agreement with Codelco collapses;SQM'sAtacama lithium concession expires in 2030•Lithiumpricespenetration decelerates and lithium oversupplypersistsCatalysts•Completion of agreement with Codelco in Salarde Atacama•SQM’s capacity expansion in Chile and China.Gradual progress on recently acquired Andoverlithium exploration project in Australia•Launch of Salar Futuro project in Chile before2030•Increase in EV penetration and gradual recoveryin lithium prices•Higher cost lithium suppliers curtail production Upside Scenario,$74, +133%$15,000/t. remain subduedasEV2 Exhibit 3 - SQM results review (US$ mn).SQM results review (US$ mn)Adj EBITDAAdj Net IncomeLithium sales volume ('000 tons)Realised lithium price ('000 US$/ton)Source: Company data; Jefferies ests; FactSetExhibit 4 - SQM vs ALB & MSCI LatAm share prices YTD (indexed, in US$).02/04/202501/29/202501/23/202501/17/202501/13/202501/07/202501/01/2025Source: FactSet; JefferiesExhibit 5 - Lithium producers - Valuation.As of 28-May-25JEF ratingSQMBuyAlbemarleBuyAmericas-based lithium players - MedianSource: FactSet; Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. SQM - Key ChartsExhibit 6 - SQM - Gross Profit by division (US$mn).-1002003004001Q24LithiumIodineLithium sales vol ('000 tons)Source: Company data; JefferiesExhibit 8 - SQM - Lithium Division sales volumes vs realised price.-102030405060701Q242Q24Lithium sales vol ('000 tons)Source: Company data; JefferiesExhibit 10 - SQM - Iodine division - sales volumes vs unit prices.-0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.51Q232Q233Q23Iodine sales vol ('000 tn)Source: Company data; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 2Q244Q23 Company pageExhibit 11 - SQM P&L summary (US$mn).SQM P&L summary (US$mn)Lithium price (US$/ton)Lithium sales volume (MT)RevenuesAdj Group EBITDA% increaseDepreciationEBIT% increaseNet Financial expensesEquity consolidationEBTTaxMinorities/OtherAttributable adj net profitSource: Company data; Jefferies ests.Exhibit 12 - SQM CF summary (US$mn).SQM CF summary (US$mn)EBITDATax paid / otherCFFO pre-WCRWorking