Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL) 股票研究报告

2023A2024A2025E58.463.767.815.3x14.1x13.2x20.1x18.5x17.3x(1.02)(1.22)(1.08) 2026E93.69.6x12.6x(0.87) Kelly Shi, Ph.D. * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-6937 | kshi@jefferies.comClara Dong, Ph.D. * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2432 | ydong1@jefferies.comJose Lora, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 236-6815 | jlora@jefferies.comYifan Xu, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8057 | yxu4@jefferies.comHangfei Fu, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7562 | hfu@jefferies.com The Long View: OcularInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferOCUL’s hydrogel drug delivery platform was validated with a marketedproduct, Dextenza, which could generate $175m peak sales by our est, provinga base value for the company. Leveraging the platform, the co has developedan ocular implant, OTX-TKI, as a durable treatment for wet AMD, and it hasshown promising durability in early trials. We view OTX-TKI as the main valuedriver for the co, given the substantial $8B wet AMD market, and think OTX-TKI could be used as a maintenance therapy for pre-treated wet AMD patientsupon successful pivotal trials, which could be started subject to fundingsupport. Several other ocular programs including diabetic retinopathy andglaucoma represent additional upside opportunity.Base Case,$16, +131%•Dextenza reaches ~$153M peak sales in 2033,with 10% peak penetration in Medicare-coveredcataractsurgeries and~3%peak marketpenetration in non-covered surgeries.•AXPAXLI reaches the US/EU markets in2026/2027 and hits peak sales of ~$997M in2033 (60% PoS).•Price Target: $16 (DCF-based)Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1)Employee Engagement, D & I: Company is committed to diversity, equityand inclusion throughout the entire organization, including in their recruitment, advancement anddevelopment practices.2)Business Ethics:Company requires that all employees, officers and directorscomply with all laws, rules and regulations applicable to the company regardless of the situation.3) SupplyChain Management:Because co manufacturers Dextenza for the treatment of ocular inflammationand itching in house following good manufacturing practices, COVID-19 or other disruptions may affectsupply.Company Targets:NAQs to mgmt.: 1) How are you ensuring for diverse enrollment in your Ph1 OTX-TKI trial for the treatmentof wet macular degeneration?2)What is your workforce DE&I demographic breakdown? 3)What haveyou been investing in manufacturing to increase the possibility of success during development andcommercialization?ESG Deep Dive: US Biotech, Pharma, Specialty PharmaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$35, +404%•Dextenza gains traction for cataract surgeriesand allergic conjunctivitis, reaching US peaksales of ~$400M in 2033.•AXPAXLI shows positive readout in diabeticretinopathy trial•AXPAXLI (Wet-AMD) shows competitive clinicaldata from pivotal clinical trials with risk-adj resetat 30%•Price Target: $35 (DCF-based) Downside Scenario,$6, -14%•Wet AMD pivotal trials failure•Dextenza sales not meeting cons•Price Target: $6 (DCF-based)CatalystsQ1 2026: Topline data from Ph3 SOL-1 in wet AMD 2 ValuationWe arrive at our $16 price target based on a DCF valuation model, which assumes a WACC of 15%,terminal growth rate of 0% and 169 million outstanding shares. We estimate OCUL's Dextenza couldreach peak sales of $153M in 2033, and OTX-TKI could reach worldwide peak revenue of ~$997M(60% PoS) in 2033 only including wAMD in our model. At this time, we do not model sales fromadditional indications such as diabetic retinopathy and glaucoma.Exhibit 1 - DCF sensitivity analysis.Source: Jefferies estimatesRisksClinical Failure:As with all companies in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals developing treatmentsof the future, a clinical failure can lead to delays in approval or possibly discontinuation of programs.Regulatory Failure:Any delays in approval timelines could affect our earnings estimates, price target,and/or rating.Commercial Failure:Delays in market entry, changes in reimbursement, and/or potential competitivethreats could lead us to revise our estimates, price target, and/or rating.Manufacturing Risks:OCUL mostly relies on internal manufacturing, which could be subject todisruptions and events out of the company's control without a backup plan.Competitive Risks:OCUL competes in a large disease area that is subject to competitive pressurefrom entrants.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - Income statement.Source: Company reports; Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionOcularOcular Therapeutix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical compan