斯马克（SJM）：相较于同行实力明显，盈利前景存疑

2024A2025E2026E8,178.78,780.48,908.311.5x11.3x11.0x9.9410.1010.40-10.0510.30 2027E9,060.710.2x11.1510.99 Scott Marks * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8007 | smarks1@jefferies.comNatasha Baker * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8278 | nbaker@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC +C The Long View: SmuckerInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWhile we see evident fundamental improvements forthcoming from Smuckergiven the margin mix shift in Pet from the divestment, Uncrustables scale, andpotentially coffee profitability reversion, we remain sidelined given near-termconcerns around go-forward impact of stranded overhead, Hostess top-linegrowth potential vis-à-vis valuation, base SJM and TWNK reinvestment needs,and leverage.Base Case,$118, +4%•Organic sales growth of ~1.3% y/y in F’25 and~3.1% in F'26•Operating margin at 20.8% in F'25 and 20.5% inF'26•Price target $118: P/E multiple of ~10.5x on our24-month forward EPS estimate of $11.22Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Water & Wastewater Management: packaged food companies that can committo managing water-related risks through capital expenditure, streamlining operations, and formingpartnerships with communities are better positioned to have lower operational costs and less susceptibleto water shortages and its risks.2)Product Quality & Safety policies ensure company brand sustenance,reduced costs associated with product recalls, fines, inventory loss, and potential litigation, resulting inhigher profitability.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce absolute scope 1 and scope 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 28% by2030 from a 2019 base year;2)Reduce scope 3 GHG emissions 22% per unit of sold product by 2030from a 2019 base year;3)reduce energy and water intensity at company-owned facilities by 5% by 2025vs. 2019 base.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How have you assessed GHG emissions in your supply chain, and what costs to mitigateyour supply’s carbon footprint have you incurred so far?2)How have you partnered with regulators toensure minimal product recalls and inventory loss?ESG Sector Deep Dive:Processed FoodsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$142, +25%•Organic sales growth of ~1.5% y/y in F’25 and~3.5% in F'26•Operating margin to 21.0% in F'25 and 21.1% inF'26•Price target $142: P/E multiple of ~12x on our24-month forward EPS estimate of $11.81 Downside Scenario,$98, -14%•Organic sales growth of ~1.1% y/y in F'25 and~1.9% in F’26•Operating margin to 20.6% in F'25 and 20.1% inF'26•Price target $98: P/E multiple of ~9x on our 24-month forward EPS estimate of $10.84Catalysts•Bi-weekly US retail tracked channel trends•Improved pet food and Hostess growth•Reduction of stranded overheads from petdivestment•Margin expansion off net savings, growth, andmix•Outsize TWNK synergies and accelerated debtpaydown potential 2 SJM Competitor AnalysisFigure 1 - SJM ahead of most large-caps with retail sales +4% y/y L12W.3%3%2%6%4%2%(6%)(4%)(2%)0%2%4%6%8%HSYSJMMKCU.S. Tracked Channel Sales Growth Y/Y-w/e 05/17/25Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC +CFigure 3 - Despite coffee commodity-driven price increases.5%5%0%5%5%1%(3%)(2%)(1%)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%SJMHSYPOSTU.S. Tracked Channel Price Growth Y/Y-w/e 05/17/25Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC +CPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1%(1%)(1%)(2%)1%(2%)(2%)(4%)NESNMDLZCPBCAGL6ML12W(1%)(1%)(1%)(1%)(0%)(1%)(1%)(1%)KCPBMKCCAGL6ML12W SJM Tracked Channel TrendsFigure 5 - We model SJM's FQ4 organic sales +2% y/y, driven by +3% pricing and volumes down 1%.0%(1%)(1%)(1%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%25%4Q181Q19Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC +C, company filingsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. (1%)(4%)(3%)(1%)(3%)1%2Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q20SJM-Nielsen vs. Total Company GrowthGap (2Q average) Figure 6 - Smucker - Revenue Growth Trends.(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%4 w/e 12/02/234 w/e 12/30/234 w/e 01/27/244 w/e 02/24/244 w/e 03/23/24U.S. Revenue Drivers vs. Two-Year Stacked Revenue GrowthJ. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - $ SALES (Y/Y GROWTH - 2Y STACKED)J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - $ SALES (Y/Y GROWTH)J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH)J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - PRICE PER EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH)Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC + ConvFigure 8 - Smucker - Volume Share Trends.(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%4 w/e 12/02/234 w/e 12/30/234 w/e 01/27/244 w/e 02/24/244 w/e 03/23/244 w/e 04/20/24U.S. Volume Growth vs. Weighted U.S. Category Volume ShareJ. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - EQ VOLUME SHAREJ. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH)J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY, THE - EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH - 2Y STACKED)