优先再融资而非资产处置

Restricted - External Neeraj Kumar, CFA+ 44 (0) 20 7773 4723neeraj.kumar@barclays.comBarclays, UK Refinancing needsAroundtown reported a consolidated cash and liquid asset balance of €3.4bn at the end ofMarch 2025. Of this €3.4bn liquidity, €1.66bn is held in the Grand City entity, which is prettymuchsufficientto cover all of Grand City's 2025/26/27 debt maturities. Earlier this month,Aroundtown issued a €750mn bond maturing in 2030 at a yield of 4.02% (coupon: 3.5%) andtendered c.€600mn of existing bonds. Pro-forma recent refinancing activity, wethink Aroundtown still needs more cash to cover its own 2026/27 debt maturities (Figure 3).Following the downgrade from S&P, we think the company is less likely to pursue any aggressivedeleveraging strategy through disposals and may instead capitalise on the conducive debtmarkets to refinance its maturities.Hence, we expect the company to remain active in thenew issue market on an opportunistic basis.While the recent bond issuance did not lead to any material movement in the long-end bonds ofthe company, we remain cautious and prefer GYCGR bonds which have better technical supportthan ARNDTN.We reiterate our Underweight rating on Aroundtown, primarily on the back ofmaterial refinancing needs and operational challenges inofficeand hotel portfolios in a volatileeconomic environment. We prefer logistics landlords such as PTHREE (OW) andBPPEHX (OW) (Real Estate: Repositioning for higher rates, 21 March 2025) over Aroundtown. Werecommend following trade ideas:•Switch from ARNDTN 1.625% 28s into GYCGR 0.125% 28s giving up 5bp in z-spread.•Switch from HEIBOS 0.75% 29s (Underweight issuer) into ARNDTN 4.8% 29s at flat z-spreadbut pick up one notch in S&P rating.•Switch from ARNDTN 4.8% 29s into PTHREE 4.625% 30s or BPPEHX 1.625% 30s at flat z-spread. 2 *Pro-forma recent new issue and tenderSource: Company reports, Barclays Research28 May 2025 HybridsARNDTN/ GYCGR hybrids lost their IG status following the downgrade from S&P and are nowrated BB+ by the agency. Both the landlords have enough time to decide upon the refinancingof their NC26 hybrids and given their low reset spreads (Figure 6), the refinancing decision canbe highly subject to market conditions at that time. Moreover, given the ample headroom to thenew rating downgrade thresholds, both the landlords now have lower pressure to achieve ahigh acceptance rate for any potential exchange. Also, regaining the equity content on c.€0.6bnstubs from S&P is not critical for retaining the current rating. So, while it may seem that boththe landlords have enough flexibility when it comes to the treatment of hybrids, we think its inthe interest of the companies to maintain their bondholder friendly stance given the materialrefinancing needs. We recommend following trade ideas:•Switch from ARNDTN 1.625% NC26 to ARNDTN 7.078% stub or ARNDTN 6.193% stub, givingup 1 point in cash price but benefiting from much higher coupons and reset spreads, at theexpense of reduced liquidity.•Switch from ARNDTN 5% NC29 to ARNDTN 1.625% NC26 to pay up 3 points in cash price for asimilar reset bond but benefit from any potential bondholder friendly refinancing activity. 3 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Neeraj Kumar, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives