巴克莱混合监测：截至第21周的铁路收入

Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail RevenueThrough Week 21 A mixed week for rail volumes as all carriers continue to trackahead of consensus 2Q25 revenue forecasts. North America TransportationPOSITIVE North America TransportationBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, US 2Q25 Revenue Through May 24, 2025 Week 21 rail volumes were mixed, with CSX and Norfolk Southern slightly ahead of historicalseasonality, Canadian National in line and Canadian Pacific Kansas City & Union Pacific laggingaverage sequential outcomes. We note that intermodal volumes at US carriers were roughly inline with typical seasonalityafterdecelerating in the prior week, which was perhaps reflective oftariffsincrementally pressuring international loadings. On a QTD basis, CPKC, UNP and NSC leadthe group with units up ~5-6%, followed by CSX at +2% and CN down 2%. Quarter to datevolume growth vs. 2024 is driven by expansion in coal, intermodal and agriculture, partiallyoffsetby declines in automotive, chemical and industrial shipments. Marking to market resultsquarter to date, we estimate all carriers are tracking ahead of consensus top-line forecasts, butnote these forecasts are likely biased negatively by the potential for further deceleration in USimports (see "HowStuffTrades" for more detail). Norfolk Southern is leading the way at nearly 5pts ahead of consensus, while on the other end CPKC and CSX are tracking less than 1 pt ahead.Yields at CPKC and CN appear to be supported by foreign exchangeeffects,while fuel andobservable mix are headwinds for most carriers (mix being driven by intermodal and certainenergy-related commodities). Carrying forward the latest weeklytrafficlevels through Juneimplies around 1 pt of deceleration for most carriers by quarter end. However, we caution thatsignificant volatility is likely in the remaining five weeks of the quarter.We note our measure ofeither positive or negative mix is viewed from a unit revenue perspective, which does notnecessarily correlate with outcomes in profitability. Eric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, US David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US John Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Summary of Class I Railroad QTD Revenue vs. Consensus and Barclays Estimates Note:/1 Ranked by variance to consensus. CP includes KCS. CP volume based on weekly data and not on reported preliminary QTD figures for consistency with othercarriers.Source: Company reports; STB; Bloomberg Consensus; Barclays Research estimates Following is a summary of current rail volumes presented in common commodity groups(Figure 4): For a detailed overview of our weekly revenue estimation methodology and back-testingresults, please see our note ‘Launching Barclays Mix Monitor, a Weekly Railroad RevenueTracker’ published 16 Nov 2020. As always, we welcome your questions and comments,Barclays Transportation Research Team Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Brandon R. Oglenski, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst. Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits. Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of B