医科达公司Q4初步评估：收益超预期，订单疲软

Q4 first take: Earnings beat, orderweakness Order weakness driven by US and China as US customersawait Evo approval plus tough comps in China, where Elektasees activity levels improving. Gross and EBIT margins bothahead of consensus driven by pricing, launches and mix. EKTAb.ST/EKTAB SSUNDERWEIGHTEuropean MedicalTechnology & ServicesPOSITIVEPrice TargetSEK 57.50Price (27-May-25)SEK 50.00Potential Upside/Downside+15.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Elekta published its Q4 2024/25 results (ending April) today with net sales 0.9% aboveconsensus, adj. EBIT 12% ahead, and adj. EPS -19% behind. Gross order intake in thequarter declined -7% at ccy (vs. +3.8% cons. & -2% in Q4 23/24). The company saidthat order weakness was driven by a decline in the US as customers await Evo approval,and the decline in China was due to a tough comparison base. The Evo US approval hasbeen resubmitted as a result of concerns around cyber-security, and the company viewsthis as a formality. Elekta sees an improvement in activity levels in China. GM strengthdriven by price increases, product launches and share ofsoftwarein the mix. Non-cashR&D impairment largely related tosoftware,including moving cloud from in-house toexternal suppliers and some othersoftwarerelated R&D. The company expects toplinegrowth in 2025/26(vs. Cons. +5.5%), and a stepwise improvement in Gross and EBITmargins towards mid-term targets. Given the recent underperformance in shares (-17%YTD, vs -3% SXDP), we believe improving margins and China commentary have been likelytaken well by the market though the continued weakness in US orders will be a focustoday. We continue to see risks over the medium term for growth and margins and seestructural disadvantages to peers. We reiterate our UW rating, preferring SiemensHealthineers (OW) (see: 2025 outlook: 5 themes for '25, 21 Nov 2024). The company willhost its Investor Day on June 10. European Medical Technology &ServicesHassan Al-Wakeel, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 3898hassan.al-wakeel@barclays.comBarclays, UK Jonathon Unwin+44 (0)20 7773 0354jonathon.unwin@barclays.comBarclays, UK Rohit Rajan+91 (0) 22 6175 1698rohit.rajan@barclays.comBarclays, UK Marco Pires-Cox+44 (0)20 3134 3421marco.pirescox@barclays.comBarclays, UK Conference call today at 09:00 UK time.Dial-in- UK: +44 (0) 207 107 0613; US: +1 (1) 631 5705613. Q4 divisional performance relative to Infront consensus and Barclays estimates •Americas: MISSon net sales versus consensus, with growth of -6% at ccy (vs. Barc -6.1%).Growth in South America was fullyoffsetby a weak development in the US mainly as aconsequence of customers awaiting the Elekta Evo clearance.MISSon Adj. EBIT relative toBarclays estimates, with divisional margins contracting by 6.2ppt y/y to 33.3%. •EMEA: BEATon net sales versus consensus with ccy growth of +16% (vs. Barc +5.4%) drivenby the continued strong momentum in Europe supported by new product launches.BEATon Adj. EBIT relative to Barclays estimates, with margins in the quarter expanding by 11.1ppt y/yto 39.9%. •APAC: IN-LINEon net sales versus consensus, which grew +5% at ccy (vs. Barc +5.8%) withgood performance across most markets. The Chinese market continued to remainsoft,however improvements were seen during the quarter resulting in a limited sales decline of 1percent compared to last year.BEATon Adj. EBIT relative to Barclays estimates, with marginsexpanding to 38.2% (6.7ppt y/y). Guidance •Net salesfor Elekta are expectedto grow year over yearfor the full year of 2025/26 (vs. cons+5.5%) withGross margin improvement(vs. cons. +50bps) as well asEBIT marginimprovement(vs. cons. +80bps) driven by price increases, product launches and volumes,resulting in a stepwise improvement towards midterm targets.•Beyond 2025/26, the company expects EBIT margin expanding to 14% and higher (vs. cons.12.9% in FY 27/28E) and gross margin to pre-pandemic levels.•For Q1 2025/26, they expect normal seasonal development with low sales volumes as well asnegativeFX-effects. Barclays | Elekta AB Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Hassan Al-Wakeel, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding