我们的核能专家电话会议要点

Key takeaways from our nuclearexpert call Industry Update We hosted an expert call on European nuclear renaissancewhich included speaker Jose Marcos Gonzalez, generaldirector of IAM Carbonzero. Mr. Gonzalez challenged ourscenario of a 10 year life extension for Spanish nuclear, whichhe thought would face government opposition. OW Endesareiterated. ELE.MC/ELE SMOVERWEIGHTEuropean UtilitiesPOSITIVEPrice TargetEUR 28.60Price (26-May-25)EUR 27.39Potential Upside/Downside+4.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research IBE.MC/IBE SMEQUAL WEIGHTEuropean UtilitiesPOSITIVEPrice TargetEUR 14.90Price (26-May-25)EUR 16.24Potential Upside/Downside-8.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Last Friday, we hosted an expert call entitled 'Nuclear Renaissance in Europe - the Spanishexample'.The event included speaker Jose Marcos Gonzalez, general director of IAMCarbonzero where he works as energy consultant. Mr. Gonzalez has over 27 years of experiencein the utilities sector and provided local colour to the current nuclear debate in Spain. Our scenario of nuclear life extension challenged by local knowledge.We recently exploredthis debate in What if...Spain goes for nuclear renaissance, (18/03/2025), while upgrading ourrating for Endesa (OW, PT €28.5) as the main beneficiary from a positive outcome. There arebroadly four key challenges raised by Mr Gonzalez: European Utilities Jose Ruiz+44 (0)20 3134 3140jose.ruizfernandez@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Mr. Gonzalez believes the Spanish Socialist Party maintains a firm anti-nuclear stance and•opposes tax relief for Spanish nuclear operators. His view appears to be influenced by recentcomments from the Spanish PM in Congress, who suggested that nuclear life extensionsshould not come 'at the expense of higher bills for consumers'. The Spanish PM was referringto the current policy where nuclear taxes help fund consumertariffs,and that cutting taxes(specifically nuclear fuel taxes) would lead to increased electricitytariffsfor consumers. Wethink there are other ways of reducing the tax burden of Spanish nuclear plants. Peter Crampton+44 (0)20 3555 0125peter.crampton2@barclays.comBarclays, UK Laura Marconi+44 (0)20 3555 0762laura.marconi@barclays.comBarclays, UK •He challenged our view that the Spanish government is concerned about the risks of•delivering the key targets in the Spanish Climate and Energy Plan (PNIEC), namely security ofsupply and maintaining lower wholesale prices through new renewable capacity additions.Nevertheless, he acknowledged that shutting down the first nuclear plant (Almaraz 1) wouldrequire backup capacity equivalent to seven CCGT plants in terms of providing inertia to thepower system. Mr. Gonzalez was of the view that the blackout on 28 April was not relevant forthe ongoing debate on nuclear life extension. We disagree on this point, as both issues couldbe interrelated in the future. Dominic Nash+44 (0)20 3134 2364dominic.nash@barclays.comBarclays, UK Temitope Sulaiman, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 3439temitope.sulaiman@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.Completed: 27-May-25, 15:58 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External •Mr. Gonzalez also challenged our view that extending useful life may require new investments•in the operating plants. He argued that investments required were made in the past and thatreaching the 40 year design life (as established by the Spanish Commission of NuclearSecurity in the following link) would not require new investments. Our estimate of an extra€1.55bn investment to extend useful life for the five oldest nuclear units over three years wasbased on EDF's 3-year €1.5bn investment plan in its UK nuclear fleet to extend the design lifeof Torness, Hartlepool and Heysham 1&2 nuclear plants (Enerdata, 11/01/2024) and the lifeextension of two Belgian nuclear reactors, Tihange 3 and Doel 4, for a total capex estimatedat €1.6bn to €2bn. •Mr. Gonzalez was sceptical about any agreement on tax cuts notaffectingthetariff.He•mentioned that the Enresa levy for nuclear dismantling was unable to be modified, because itreflects the actual costs of dismantling the Garona nuclear plant (the first such example of amodern nuclear plant in Spain). In our central scenario we estimate that a €10/MWh cut intotal tax burden would bring nuclear plants to break-even. One of our assumptions relates toan automatic decline in Enresa levy from nuclear life