Evergy Inc. 第一季度投资更新及炉边谈话要点

Post 1Q Investment Update &Fireside Chat Takes We provide key takes from our recent fireside chat withCEO/CFO as well as an investment update post 1Q25earnings; Continued load opportunity that could drive EPSrevisions; Maintain OW EVRGOVERWEIGHTUnchanged U.S. Power & UtilitiesPOSITIVEUnchanged Price TargetUSD 71.00lowered -3% from USD 73.00 Price (27-May-25)USD 66.23Potential Upside/Downside+7.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Aussie Fireside Chat Takeaways: We see a path to converge towards an in-line multiple intoYE25; Maintain Overweight:We provide key takeaways from our May 22 Fireside Chat with CEODavid Campbell and CFO Bryan Buckler on EVRG's story, as well as an investment update on thecompany post 1Q25 EPS. We see EVRG as one of our top ideas given it is catalyst rich in 2H25and we view it likely management is able to remove the regulatory overhang in KS. While thereare aspects of the story that are below average, including 4-6% EPS growth, we see the potentialfor EPS revisions, including an EPS CAGR increase by the 4Q call, and higher load growth as wellas potential RAB extension beyond the current 8.5% guidance, which is already in line with thewider sector average. EVRG trades at a ~9% P/E discount to large-cap electric peers and we'remaintaining our OW rating. Market Cap (USD mn)15216Shares Outstanding (mn)229.75Free Float (%)97.5152 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)2.0Dividend Yield (%)4.03Return on Equity TTM (%)8.95Current BVPS (USD)43.16Source: Bloomberg Catalyst Path:We are watching several catalysts on the regulatory front including the pendingKS Central rate case with next steps includingstafftestimony on June 6, settlement conferenceJuly 8-9, hearings beginning on July 21 and a Commission order expected by September 28.Also in KS, EVRG is pursuing a large loadtariffwith next steps including a settlementofferbyEVRG on June 20, settlement discussions the week of June 23, a Commission Order due (ifsettlement reached) August 11, and if a settlement agreement is not reached next steps includeStafftestimony August 12, hearings October 8-9 and a Commission order by November 25. Forthe large loadtariffin MO next steps includestaffrecommendation / rebuttal testimony on July25, settlement conference scheduled for September 23, hearings scheduled for September 29-October 3, initial briefs on October 18 and reply briefs on October 25. Price PerformanceExchange-Nasdaq52 Week rangeUSD 70.36-52.10 Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting Valuation, EPS Ests & Risks:We decrease our PT to $71 (from $73 prior) on account of a slightlylower large-cap electric group multiple of 15.9x (from 16.3x prior). We decrease our FY27 EPSestimate by 4c, leaving our other estimates unchanged.Risks:Better/worse than expectedregulatory outcomes in KS and MO, inflationary headwinds, unfavorable weather trends. U.S. Power & UtilitiesNicholas Campanella+1 212 526 6123nicholas.campanella@barclays.comBCI, US Fei She, CFA+1 212 526 8011fei.she@barclays.comBCI, US Nathan Richardson+1 212 526 6244nathan.richardson@barclays.comBCI, US Key Takeaways from Fireside Chat with Executives We recently met with CEO David Campbell and CFO Bryan Buckler and provide the following keytakeaways from our conversation: •Budget Reconciliation Impacts:Management guided that they are somewhat cautious withwhat they include in IRPs and the capital plan and guided that for a project to be includedmanagement would need to have a somewhat high level of confidence in a specificcustomer / project. Additionally, management thinks that the solar projects will qualify forthe tax credits; however, it is possible some solar could be delayed. The bulk of the capitalplan currently is related to increased natural gas investment. There is a robust amount of capital behind the current RAB guidance of 8.5% and management noted that the capitalplan is not dependent on DC customers. Some recalibration may be necessary depending onthe final budget reconciliation bill but the company is confident in where things currentlystand. Nuclear PTCs – if included in the final legislation – could be a key lever foraffordabilityfor customers, with management guiding to potentially $130-140mn annually split betweenKC / KS Metro jurisdictions and would flow back to customers. •Credit Considerations:Moody's recently lowered EVRG's downgrade threshold to 14% from15% with management providing that this gives the company flexibility in terms of theircredit metrics as they invest capital. Management wants to maintain a small cushion from thedowngrade threshold but noted that this could allow them to re-evaluate equity needs in thefuture and potentially reduce equity issuance below current guidance should their creditmetrics remain strong. •Data Center Update:There are two large customers in the finalizing agreement stage, andshould these two customers ultimately join EVRG's service territory it could allow thecompany to increase formal load growth guida