尤尼波尔：总括保险带来的边际顺风

Margin tailwinds from aggregatecoverage Unipol has signed a new aggregate cover against small-to-medium nat cat losses with the aim of reducing earningsvolatility and protecting profitability. Thanks to this dealUnipol might be able to exceed its P&C targeted marginslevel. We reiterate our OW. UNPI.MI/UNI IMOVERWEIGHTUnchanged European InsurancePOSITIVEUnchanged Price TargetEUR 17.50raised 6% from EUR 16.50 Price (27-May-25)EUR 17.01Potential Upside/Downside+2.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research A new aggregate cover to drive P&C margins to or above target level: In the recent years, re/insurance companies have experienced higher frequency and severity nat cat losses which haveresulted in less predictable earnings and higher than expected losses. Unipol has been able tosign an aggregrate cover that will insure earnings stability and margin expansion in line orabove target levels. The cost of the new aggregate cover (not disclosed) has been included inthe new strategic plan, while the potential benefits have not been taken into account in the newtargets, implying that there could be a potentialupliftin margins from the targeted 92% COR in2027. The new cover will protect Unipol over the next three years from small-to-medium nat catlosses of less than €100m with a €5m deductible and attachment point of €350m for a totalamount of €300m. The coverage has been provided by a pool of reinsurers. Considering therecent increase in frequency and severity of nat cat events, reinsurers have been more hesitantto underwrite aggregate cover, and in fact Unipol has confirmed that there are only 10 otherinsurers with similar coverage in the market. Before signing this new reinsurance agreement,Unipol had (and still has) a reinsurance coverage for single event with an excess loss of €100m.After2023, a year that saw the highest record gross losses of more than €1bn for Unipol,Management tookdifferentmeasures to reduce volatility and protect the bottom line: 1. theyincluded reinsurance protection to motor line, 2. they reduced exposure to certain areas in Italy,and 3. they set a maximum exposure per region. This new coverage is another step towards theright direction. Price PerformanceExchange-MIL52 Week rangeEUR 17.59-8.51 Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting European Insurance Alessia Magni, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 7393alessia.magni@barclays.comBarclays, UK Claudia Gaspari+44 (0)20 3134 6039claudia.gaspari@barclays.comBarclays, UK Increasing our earnings and price target: We are updating our estimates post 1Q25 results. Asa result of higher than expected profits in P&C and better than anticipated GWP in Life, weincrease our estimates by c. 4% on average over the forecast period 2025E-2027E and increaseour PT to €17.5 (from €16.5). Our valuation methodology is unchanged. Barclays | Unipol Analyst(s) Certification(s): We, Claudia Gaspari and Alessia Magni, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst. Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account. Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy