尤尼百-罗当科-韦斯特菲尔德（URW）：拼图中缺失的一块——回归AREPS增长

Restricted - External URW.PA/URW FPOVERWEIGHTEuropean Real EstateNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 100.00Price (14-May-25)EUR 75.82Potential Upside/Downside+31.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Real EstatePaul May, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1444paul.j.may@barclays.comBarclays, UKEleanor Frew, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 0748eleanor.frew@barclays.comBarclays, UKKanad Mitra+91 (0)22 6175 1793kanad.mitra@barclays.comBarclays, UK Simply adding the previously not included income streams and the additional C&E incomewould take our forecast FY28E AREPS to €9.45, so this explains much of the delta to companyguidance. We are positive on the group's eventual return to growing income, and see this,combined with the high starting earnings and FCF yields, as being very attractive for investors.Rise and Licence Income– We were given a high-level demonstration of the Rise digitalmarketing and data-driven product and can see how this would be value-additive to the group'stenants. It is already an established business in Europe generating €78m, and while US digitalmarketing generated €38m in FY24, this has now been brought under the Rise banner. Thegroup is targeting this total net revenue to grow to €180m (100% share) and while it isimpossible to forecast this growth, the increase from €50m in FY21 to €115m in FY24 gives uscomfort. The group did note that c. €30-50m of the c. €300m p.a. planned maintenance, leasingand Rise capex is due to rolling out digital screens and other supporting investment to drive theRise platform.In Licencing the group announced a deal with Cenomi (not covered) in Saudi Arabia. The dealwill roll out the Westfield brand on Cenomi's malls (three by H226, with a target of 8 by FY28)and see URW provide other advice and consulting services. This deal alongside others that arebeing discussed is expected to generate €25-35m of EBITDA by FY28 and a 5-7 year target of€50-70m, with no capex requirement from URW. Similarly to Rise, we have no way of forecastingthis business and await further agreements being announced.Investment capex– URW intends to invest c. €600m p.a. in total capex from FY26E onwards,with c. €300m p.a. in maintenance, leasing and the roll-out of Westfield Rise (which are allarguably operating expenses) and c. €300m p.a. for future enhancement and developmentcapex post completion of the current committed schemes. The former is lower than wecurrently model (€420m based on the historical run rate) and the latter was not in our forecast(we assumed a reduction to €0m post completion of the current committed schemes). Thegroup is targeting a 6-8% return on the c. €300m of enhancement and development capex, butgiven recent significantly lower development returns, we will need to be convinced that thesereturns are achievable moving forwards.DPS payout ratio higher than we would like but arguably sustainable– We forecast a lowerDPS than is being guided by the company today. We model a slower ramp up to a c. 61% payoutratio by FY29E, but the company is guiding to €4.5 in FY25E (Barclays has €4.0) and a 60-70%payout ratio from FY27E. While the DPS and the c. €600m capex requirements are noted asbeing fully covered by recurring results from FY27E onwards, we would have liked to see thegroup keep some recurring income in reserve given the increased macro uncertainty.Leverage targets are a positive and adopting a net-debt neutral strategy– The group istargeting a ND/EBITDA of 8.0x (9.5x FY24) and a reported LTV of 40% (FY24 45.5%). We find theformer to be positive as European companies tend not to focus on the metric, despite it being acore metric for marginal investors, and those companies that do have an ND/EBITDA target aregenerally guiding to an increase rather than decreasing ratio. It is particularly pleasing that URWcan achieve this reduction while also guiding to an earnings growth. The LTV target is lessrelevant in our view, given property valuation yields remain optimistically low and the fact thereported LTV includes intangibles in the denominator and certain JVs as equity rather thanproportional assets and debt, for example Barclays calculated FY24 LTV was 56.4%, well abovethe reported 45.5%.Encouragingly, post completion of the €2.2bn (€1bn already completed) divestmentprogramme, the group is takingafterthe UK-based companies and is adopting a net-debtneutral strategy as regards investment. The €600m total capex will be funded from recurringearnings as will the DPS, and any incremental investment (acquisitions, developments 2 (Croydon, Milan, etc.), or share buy-backs) will be funded by disposing of a further €2bn ofassets earmarked as non-core (including €500m of non-income producing land). This is veryencouraging as Continental European-based companies arguably got into leverage troublethrough focusing on relative leverage metrics (LTV), so the V (asset values) increased on yieldcompression due to ultra-low rates companies added a proportionate (and in some cases agreater proportion) of debt (the