惠普公司（HPQ US）：持有：关税对个人电脑营业利润率造成影响

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)27.0035.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE27.20-0.7%(as of28 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)25,642Free floatMarket cap (USDm)25,642BBG3m ADTV (USDm)242RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to10/2024a10/2025e10/2026eHSBC EPS3.383.053.28HSBC EPS (prev)3.383.573.79Change (%)0.0-14.6-13.4Consensus EPS3.393.493.64PE (x)8.18.98.3Dividend yield (%)4.14.34.3EV/EBITDA (x)6.98.27.8ROE (%)-279.2-197.0-178.352-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:RefinitivIBES, HSBC estimatesStephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343Govinder Kumar*Analyst, US Technology ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCgovinder.kumar@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 6650* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesComputers & PeripheralsUnited States05/2411/2405/25Target price: 27.00High: 39.30 Low: 21.88 Current: 27.20 ◆◆◆ 100%HPQ USHPQ.N10/2027e3.754.10-8.43.907.24.37.1-199.019.0030.5042.00 2Financial statementsYear to10/2024a10/2025eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue53,55955,624EBITDA4,6484,046Depreciation & amortisation-830-818Operating profit/EBIT3,8183,228Net interest-539-590PBT3,2792,638HSBC PBT3,9723,435Taxation-504-525Netprofit2,7752,112HSBC net profit3,3392,885Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations3,7492,898Capex-592-885Cash flow from investment-646-1,533Dividends-1,075-1,086Change in net debt1641,147FCF equity3,1572,013Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets00Tangible fixed assets19,14919,000Current assets20,76021,532Cash & others3,2533,383Total assets39,90940,532Operating liabilities31,56331,192Gross debt9,66910,946Net debt6,4167,563Shareholders' funds-1,323-1,606Invested capital5,0935,957Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to10/2024a10/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-0.33.9EBITDA7.9-13.0Operating profit10.5-15.5PBT11.6-19.6HSBC EPS3.1-9.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)10.410.1ROIC62.946.8ROE-279.2-197.0ROA8.46.4EBITDA margin8.77.3Operating profit margin7.15.8EBITDA/net interest (x)8.66.9Net debt/equity0.00.0Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.41.9CF from operations/net debt58.438.3Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)2.812.24HSBC EPS (diluted)3.383.05DPS1.101.16Book value-1.34-1.70Financials & valuation:HP Inc HP Inc in chartsHP Inc:Y-o-y revenue growth by segment, %Source: Company reports, HSBC estimatesHP Inc:FCF, dividends, share buybacks(USDm) and DPS (USD, RHS)Source: Companyreports, HSBC estimatesHP Inc:Non-GAAP EBITDA, gross debt(USDm)andgross debt/EBITDA, net debt/EBITDA(RHS)Source:Company reports, HSBC estimates-30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2FY 2022FY 2023Personal System-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000FY 2020FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024FY 2025EDividendsShare buybacks03,0006,0009,00012,000FY 2020FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024FY 2025ENon-GAAP EBITDAGross Debt/EBITDA (RHS) HPInc:2QFY25results reviewHP Inc:2QFY25results review (USDm, unless specified)Year-end October2QFY25aHSBCevsHSBCe Consensus vs. Consensus 2QFY24aRevenue13,22012,8752.7%Gross profit2,7392,768-1.1%Gross margin20.7%21.5%-0.78ppOperating profit9611,103-12.9%Operating margin7.3%8.6%-1.3ppNet income678808-16.1%Net margin5.1%6.3%-1.15ppDiluted EPS, USD0.710.86-17.4%Source:Company reports, HSBC estimates, Visible Alpha consensus.All items are non-GAAPEstimate changesWith this note, weupdate our model toreflectthe2QFY25financial resultswhich camelargelyweaker thanour expectations.We also account for the company’s3QFY25and FY26guidancein our estimates.We cut our PC segment margin estimates and bring them closer to the lowerend of HP’s long-term guidance of 5-7% and gradually lift them over FY25-27e. These changesresult in significant cuts in our FY25-27e estimates.HP Inc: Changes inestimates (USDm, unless specified)Year-end__________FY25e_____________________FY26e_____________________FY27e___________OctoberNewOld% changeRevenue55,62455,2790.6%Operating income4,0434,568-11.5%Net profit2,8853,338-13.6%EPS, USD3.053.57-14.6%Source:HSBCestimates; All items are non-GAAPHPInc: Key non-GAAP metrics (USDm, unless specified)Year-end____Revenue________Gross_________Operating__________Net______Octoberturnovery-o-y gth.profitmarginFY 202353,718-14.7%11,50821.4%FY 202453,559-0.3%11,81822.1%FY 2025e55,6243.9%11,79221.2%FY 2026e56,4221.4%12,13121.2%FY 2027e56,8890.8%12,23121.1%Source:Company reports,HSBC estimates NewOld% changeNewOld% change56,42256,0770.6%56,88956,5340.6%4,1724,637-10.0%4,5604,809-5.2%2,9543,357-12.0%3,2223,459-6.9%3.283.79-13.4%3.754.10-8.4%___EPS, USD____profitmarginprofitmarginprofity-o-y gth.4,5738.5%3,2776.1%3.28-19.6%4,5208.4%3,3396.2%3.383.0%4,0437.3%2,8855.2%3.05-9.8%4,172