惠普公司（HPQ）业绩影响

Masahiro Nakanomyo * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6142 | mnakanomyo@jefferies.comHisako Furusumi * | Equity Associate+813 5251 6158 | hfurusumi@jefferies.com 2Q Company-Wide Results2Q (Feb-Apr) sales were $13.2bn (+3% YoY, +5% ex-forex), rising YoY for the fourth straightquarter. Consensus was for sales of $13.1bn. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.71 (-9% YoY), missingguidance for $0.75-$0.85. Consensus was for $0.80. Due to tariff impact, Personal Systemsprofitability in particular declined more than expected. According to mgmt., tariff impact reducedmargin by approx. 10% and EPS by $0.12.Looking at sales by region, the Americas (44% composition) was +4.7% YoY ex-forex. EMEA (33%)was +1.5% and Asia Pacific (23%) was +8.8%.FY10/24 sales totaled $53.559bn (-0.35 YoY, -0.2% ex-forex).Personal Systems 2Q sales were $9.0bn (+7.1% YoY, +8.1% ex-forex), rising YoY for the fifthstraight quarter. OP totaled $409mn (-19% YoY) and OPM 4.5%. 2Q OPM declined due to tariffimpact (mgmt. says that tariff impact was mainly in Personal Systems). Mgmt. says that, startingin 3Q, the plan is to minimize the impact of higher tariff costs through price pass-on.End-2Q company-wide inventories amounted to $8.17bn (-$300mn QoQ, +$600mn YoY).Inventories increased YoY slightly.3Q FY10/25 guidance:Non-GAAP EPS 3Q outlook for $0.68-$0.80 ($0.71n in 2Q, $0.83 in 2QFY10/24). Consensus is for $0.90. Full-FY10/25 guidance for $2.32-$2.62 ($3.38 in FY10/24),down from $2.82-$2.62 previously. New guidance incorporates tariff impact. The assumptionsare for PC market growth in CY25 in low single digit and a printing market decline in low singledigit YoY. Consensus is for $3.56.Inkjet ImplicationsHP’s consumer (mainly inkjet) 2Q hardware sales volume was +3% YoY and an estimated 70%vs. Feb-Arp 2019. Volume increased YoY, but was only around 70% vs. 2019. ASP was -9% YoY.ASP rose after COVID-19, and then fell from 2023 to 2024 as supply increased due a supply chainrecovery amid a pullback in demand. ASP gradually stabilized starting in 2H 2024, but droppedagain in 2Q FY10/25.Canon’s inkjet volume in Jan-Mar was +13% YoY (92% vs. 2019). ASP ex-forex was -4%. Full-FY10/25 guidance for volume to be +4% YoY (90% vs. 2019).Seiko Epson’s inkjet sales volume in Jan-Mar was +4% YoY (103% vs. 2019). ASP ex-forex was+2%. Full-FY3/26 guidance for volume to be -0% YoY (105% vs. 2019).Brother’s inkjet sales volume in Jan-mar was +11% YoY (117% vs. 2019). ASP ex-forex was +5%.Full-FY3/26 volume guidance not disclosed, but aiming to sustain growth from FY3/25 (+14%).We expect overall market volume to rise slightly YoY in CY25. However, volume could slow in2H 2025 depending on US market reaction to Trump tariffs and global macro trends. Lookingmed-term by company, we expect relatively stable growth at Epson, where large ink tank modelsaccount for 80% of sales, and Brother, which has had a low market share until now but isincreasing sales by introducing new products and focusing on large capacity printers in emergingcountries.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 1 - Inkjet Hardware shipment YoY Trends.-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%CY1Q/182Q/183Q/184Q/181Q/192Q/193Q/194Q/19Canon unitsEpson unitsSource: Jefferies, company dataChart 3 - Inkjet non hardware trends ex Forex.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%CanonSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataNote: HPQ non hardware include LBP and InkjetLBP ImplicationsHP’s commercial printer (mainly LBP) 2Q sales volume was -2%. Sales were an estimated 62%vs. Feb-Arp 2019. ASP was -1% YoY./ Sales volume in CY23 and 1H CY24 declined sharply dueto inventory adjustments. Sales rebounded YoY starting in 2H FY24, and sales in 2Q FY10/24declined only slightly YoY compared with a sharp decline in the year-ago period.Canon’s LBP sales volume in Jan-Mar was +17% YoY (57% vs. 2019). Sales dropped sharply in2023 and Jan-Mar 2024 due to inventory adjustments at HP, but sales have been reboundingsince Apr-Jun 2024. However, sales are only around 60% vs. 2019. Full-2025 outlook for -5% (65%vs. 2019). Gauging from HP’s 2Q sales, we anticipate a YoY decline for the full year.Brother’s LBP sales volume in Jan-Mar was +1% YoY (86% vs. 2019) and ASP was flat. Full-FY25guidance not issued, but mgmt. seems to expect basically flat sales due to higher sales volumefor color printers amid a decline in monochrome volume.Overall LBP market demand appears set to continue falling YoY in 2025 as well.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. .Source: Jefferies estimates, company data Chart 4 - Canon and HP LBP Hardware shipment Trends.020406080100120140160Source: Jefferies, company dataChart 5 - Canon and LBP non hardware shipment Trends.0.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02,500.03,000.03,500.04,000.04,500.05,000.0HP