IT硬件：内存价格飙升对AAPL、DELL、HPE、HPQ、SMCI有何影响？

IT Hardware: As Memory Prices Skyrocket, What’s the Impact toAAPL, DELL, HPE, HPQ, SMCI? Since CQ2’25, headline DRAM and NAND prices have increased by 104% and 52%respectively. When looking at the more extreme spot price indications, the upside is morefrightening at 206% and 59%. Diving deeper into the details of what our IT Hardware OEMsactually buy we show thatDRAM contract prices have increased by 38%-69%over thepast 2 quarters, with mobile DRAM experiencing the highest cost inflation.NAND contract Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com When considering the BOM composition,memory (NAND, DRAM) takes the highestpercentage of costs in PCs (~13%), followed by traditional servers (~12%) thenhandsets (~8%), and AI servers (~8%).By multiplying these percentages by changes inmemory module contract prices, we conclude that a surge in memory prices will have alowto mid-single-digit percentage impact on total COGS for PCs, traditional servers, Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Analyzing previous memory up-cycles, hardware OEMs were generally able to passthrough higher memory costs with just short-term transitory impact to margins. Pricing adjustments and supply chain management in the past helped offset the majorityof component inflation, though most companies did acknowledge a short-term transitory Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Historically PC ASPs generally track DRAM price inflation with roughly a one-quarter lag,reflecting OEMs’ ability to pass through higher memory costs with only short-term transitory impact to profits.Moreover, traditional server gross margin exhibitedno meaningful correlation with DRAM price movements.Despite memory price Impact on OEMs profits, entirely transitory:Since all OEMs will experience the samecost increases over the longer term, those cost increases will all be passed on in the formof higher prices. Any impact on margin therefore is transitory. We seeHPQ and SMCIwith the most potential downside of 19% to EPS on a one quarter basis. Dell andHPE impact should be less at 6% and 4% of one quarter EPS respectively. We seeApple as the most immune to memory price fluctuations with just 0.3% impact to For memory suppliers:While they haven’t got contracts sufficient to cover all volume &price, we still think price likely will rise further into 1HCY26, maybe at a similar or slowerrate than in 4QCY25, with DRAM having better strength than NAND. Overall, with strongdemand from hyperscalers for AI, suppliers are very adamant on price increases currently,and in the past few weeks all guided supply constraints are likely to persist for the entire INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We remain Outperform on AAPL, DELL, STX, SNDK, Market-Perform on SMCI, HPE, HPQ, WDCWe rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 95,000.We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 400,000.We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$ 170.00.We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 3,500.00. Table Of Contents PART I: Contract Price vs Spot Price Increases for DRAM and NAND................................................................................................................. 3PART II: Diving deeper into memory prices by vertical (module prices)................................................................................................................6PART III. Impact to COGS by Product...............................................................................................................................................................................8AI Servers: Only 1% impact to COGS....................................................................................................................................................................... 8Traditional Servers: 3% increase to COGS..............................................................................................................................................................9PC (including Macs): 4% increase to COGS........................................................................................................................................................... 9Handset (iPhone): 3% increase to COGS..............................................................................................................................................................10PART IV. How have OEMs managed cost increases historically...........................................................................................................................11PART V. Estimating impact to EPS..................................................................................................................................................................................15Impact on EPS is mostly tr