金佰利墨西哥公司（KIMBERA MM）：买入：表现韧性強

EquitiesHousehold Products Mexico ◆Cautious optimism around macro outlook for Mexico withexpectations of resilient domestic consumption in 2H MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(MXN)PREVIOUS TARGET(MXN)39.0039.00 ◆KCMis deliveringperformance within its guided target range;the price hikes and cost savings could boost marginsin 2H ◆Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of MXN39.00 We hosted Kimberly-Clark deMexico during our 13th Annual Mexico OpportunitiesForum in Mexico City last weekalong with other Mexican corporates,expertspeakers, and investors. Cautious optimism: During the meetings,corporates andfeatured speakershighlighted theuncertainty surrounding trade (possible changes to the USMCA) andthe upcoming judicial vote (1June). Despite these risks, we noted cautious optimismamong participants that the policy outlook hasimproved,and trade tensions couldease. Overall, our macro colleagues see room for rates to go lower (7.5% year-end,100bp of cuts) and modest weakness in the peso (MXN20.0 at year-end).Please seeKey macro takeaways, 22 May 2025andKey corporate takeaways, 29 May 2025.KCM’s management echoed similarsentiments on outlookon domestic consumption.They highlighted resilient performance during 1H25, though y-o-y comparisonwouldbe tough due toexceptionallystrong performance during 1H24,and the comparisonto ease in 2H25. Price hikes and cost savings could better margins in 2H25:KCMhas beenreporting EBITDA margins in its target range of 25-27%. The company is announcingprice hikes and is confident in implementing them despite a softer economicenvironment in Mexico. Decline in pulp fibre price, cost saving initiatives, falling oilprices, and stability in MXN against USD could keep costs in check.The MXN hasappreciated meaningfully in recent weeks, and HSBCFX strategistsbelieve the MXNcould stay strong in the near term. Around two-thirds of the company’s costs aredenominated in USD. Thus,we expect a higher margin in 2H25. Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-AsiaMetals & Mining,Pulp & PaperHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4499 Compelling valuations: KCM’s share price has rallied c25% from the lowlevelwitnessed in December 2024, but it still trades at a discount, almost 1 stddev belowits5-yearhistorical average. We believe that the weakness in the share price can beattributed to the macro environment. However, we highlight the defensivecharacteristics of KCM given its proven ability to deliverrobust performance in achallenging environment, thus we see a scope offurtherre-rating for the shares. Gustavo Hwang*Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining,Pulp & PaperBanco HSBC S.A.gustavo.hwang@hsbc.com+55 11 2802 3257 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy with an unchanged TP of MXN39.00:In light of strong operatingperformance and attractive shareholder returns (5-6% dividend yield and buybacks),we believe that the risk/reward ratio for KIMBERAshares is skewed to the upside.The recently announced JV with Grupo Nutecshouldimpactthe medium term, likelynot the near term. GCC Exchanges Conference 2025 16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, London Register Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and theanalyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 28 May 2025 Change in estimates Weincorporate the company’s recent results in our model. The cut in our estimates is due toexpectations of a weaker (on a y-o-y basis) 1H25performance and challenging operatingconditions caused by tariffs related uncertainty. Valuation and risks Wehave atarget price for KIMBERA sharesofMXN39.00(unchanged). We use a DCFvaluation approach based on a WACC of 10.4% (10.5% previously; due tolower cost of debt-from 8.5% to 7.5%, inline with the latest HSBC policy rate forecasts), a cost of equity of 11.4%(11.3% previously; due to highercountry risk premium),country risk premium of2.0%(from1.9% due to change in Mexico CDS), a beta of 0.96 (unchanged), and a terminal growth rate of3.50% (unchanged). Thedecrease in our estimates offset the impact of thelowerWACCassumption. Our target priceimplies13.9% upside from current levels, and we have a Buyrating on expectations of increase in margins in 2H2025 and re-rating of the stock. Downside risks: a slowdown in the consumer environment, resulting in increased competition;stronger-than-expected raw materialprices(pulp andcellulose) could reduce margins; weaker-than-expected MXN/USD rate could accentuate cost pressures. Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarilyresponsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(