贵金属日报：黄金因关税争端上涨；美联储会议可能抑制涨势

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsJames SteelChief Precious Metals AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.james.steel@us.hsbc.com+16468675600CommoditiesPreciousMetalsGlobal ◆◆◆ Palladium--976.00----‘000oz809.801572.00-762.20203.70 Gold can bebuoyedby tariffs,butFed ChairPowell meeting withPresidentTrump canconstrain pricesGold’s volatile trading showsthe influence of tariffs not only on gold but also on the USD. Thecourts have granted theimpositionof tariffs during an appeal, which could take months.According to HSBC FX research,President Trump has other options for delivering tariffs,including those already used on the sector-specific front for steel and aluminium and autos, forexample.The FX team pointsout,however, thatthese involve a more time-consuming processof consultation before going in place. By contrast, Section 122 allows 15% import tariffs to beimposed across the board (i.e. all countries would face them) for 150 days without aneed forconsultation.Theiruniversal application,however,makes them less useful as a lever in tradenegotiations with anygivennation. At the very least,however,the ruling removesthe threat ofswift punitive tariffs from the administration’s toolkit.Tariffs will remain influential in divining goldprices, but their impact may not be so straight forward oreasy to judge going forward.Gold rallied in the face of a string ofspeeches by Fedofficials.Federal Reserve GovernorAdriana Kuglerspeaking at a Fed conference (Reuters) saidsheiscloselymonitoring marketsamid substantial shifts in trade policy andthe possibility ofdiminished investor desire to holdUSDassets.These commentsmayhave important ramifications for gold asdiminisheddemandby investors for USD assets has thepotentialto drive gold higher as bullion wouldalmostcertainty benefit from safe haven buying in a climate of reduced USD asset demand.FederalReserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee(Reuters)saidthe US trade court’s rulingblocking the Trump tariffs may not resolve the uncertainty that is holding back US businesses.This may bebecausethe administration may find other ways to impose tariffs, according to Mr.Goolsbee.Fed officials’statementscould be construed as goldpositive,but we do not believe the meetingbetweenPresident Trump andFed Chair Powell can be seen as goldpositive. The Fedreleased astatementthat at the President's invitation, Chair Powell met with PresidentTrumptoday at the White House to discuss economic developments including for growth, employment,and inflation.The statements saidChair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetarypolicy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economicinformation and what that means for the outlook.Finally, Chair Powell said that he and hiscolleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximumemployment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective,and non-political analysis.How does all thisstackup for gold? To the extent that the Fedstatementof Chair Powell’smeeting with President Trump reaffirms the Fed’sindependenceand commitment to stableprices as well as full employment, we view it as gold bearish. The fact that Fed Governor Kuglervoiced public interest in the possibility that investors willcontinue toexhibitdiminishedappetiteforUSD assetsispossiblythe most important comment made by other Fed officialstoday.Theappeals court puts tariffs also back on the menu. On balance,we believegold is likely to be wellbid given thesedevelopments,but we still tend to view the market as overstretchedand thetone of Fed Chair Powell’s meeting with President Trump is not gold constructive. Much maydepend ongreater central bank buyingmaterializing. We cannot be fundamentallypositiveonsilver and look for it to gohigher onlyif gold rallies. The PGMs were quite subdued,but we stilldetectunderlyingtightnessin platinumand note it is holding up well in theaftermathof gainsmade in Platinum Week. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarilyresponsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: J