债务上限：不指望关税

JulAugSepOctNovRestricted - External Dec Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, USAnshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US In order to put bounds around the x-date given this new source of uncertainty, we outlineseveral scenarios for how the x-date might land, which are shown in Figure 1. Should the court'sdecision remain in place, at least in the next few months, it would cutoffa significant source ofrevenue during that time. We had highlighted new revenues as posing a risk of pushing the x-date out, but this right tail would be diminished under this scenario. Our analysts also expectthat by the end of next week, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would have to beginrefunding thetariffsit has collected (see here), which would deplete the Treasury's cashposition further.Figure 2 shows customs and excise tax revenues so far in 2025 compared to 2024, with revenuerunning about +$30bn versus the same period last year. We think this is a reasonable upperbound on the amount CBP would have to repay, as the higher revenue also reflects non IEEPAtariffsas well as higher goods volume due to front running, so the actual amount might be a bitlower. Incorporating this payback into our previous baseline forecast of net outflows of +10%2024 levels suggests only a slight pull forward of the x-date, but with it still landing around lateAugust/early September. Given the heavy drain on the TGA at that time, the incremental $30bnhas littleeffect.FIGURE 2. Customs revenue is running about +$30bn compared to last yearSource: US Treasury, Barclays ResearchOn the other side, should the administration be granted an emergency stay in the coming days,the risk the x-date could again be pushed out to late October comes back into play. The realizedcustoms revenue so far suggests that revenue over the coming months could achieve the +$25bn/m increment we had penciled in for our upside case. Moreover, tax revenue over recentweeks has been tracking a bit stronger than we had initially forecast (Figure 4), and is nowcloser to +2% versus 2024 even excludingtariffs(Figure 3). Even excludingtariffrevenues withthis lower net outflows assumption could give Treasury enough of abufferto reach theSeptember 15 tax date when new receipts would replenish the TGA, carrying it into October.That said thebufferis quite small in that scenario and the repayment oftariffrevenue on top ofthat could put the TGA very close to being in the red right before mid-September.In the end, the reality might likely fall somewhere in between these various outcomes with theTreasury looking to come uncomfortably close to exhausting its capacity right before theSeptember tax date. Earlier in May the Treasury Secretary wrote to Congress, stating that therewas a "reasonable probability" the Treasury could exhaust its measures in August whileCongress is in recess. The above suggests that Treasury would have little reason to alter itsthinking, especially as the x-date provides a firm deadline for Congress to act on thereconciliation package, which would also raise the debt limit by $4trn.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Anshul Pradhan and Samuel Earl, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about anyor all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Each research report excerpted herein was certified under SEC Regulation AC by the analyst primarily responsible for such report as follows: I herebycertify that: 1) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities referred to inthis report and; 2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed inthis report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of th