SentinelOne（S）2026财年第一季度：4月的宏观环境是个问题

5,888.55 RatingOutperformPrice TargetSAdjusted EPSS (USD)OLDSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.SentinelOne’s FQ1’26 earnings were negatively impacted by macro weakness in April,slipping deals out of the quarter and leaving their guidance beat at just more than 0% (+$1MM) relative to last year’s quarters at 1-3% beats. This was consistent with our channelchecks into the quarter (here). We impute the April weakness primarily impact their newcustomer lands, while existing customer expansion remained more consistent. And thecompany reported more of an issue with larger enterprises than smaller.On a positive note the company noted most of these slipped deals already closed.Existing customers did better than new customers, with NRR holding consistent (whenadjusted for the Deception end-of-life). The company guided an increased ARR addition vs.normal seasonality given the slipped deals and solid NRR.Biggest known risk may be DOGE.Macro could get worse, but that is hard to predict.On the other hand, the company’s exposure to US Federal is a few %, and with State/Localgovernment that could be influenced by US Federal it is close to 5%. Given layoffs arerunning ~15% in the US Federal, and State/Local are often following, we feel its reasonableto assume ~1% ARR headwind is possible in FQ3/4 this year.Bottom line remains a weaker link.While revenue came in +$1MM, the Non-GAAP OpExcame in -$3MM vs. consensus. This was particularly driven by a large QoQ step up in S&M,as the company invested in more resources to land deals and continues its commercial teamtransformation to go after larger enterprise customers.Investment ImplicationsOur model tweaks up QoQ ARR growth in Q2, and down the 2ndhalf revenue as a wholeconsidering DOGE headwinds. Applying a 50/50 ~9x Price to NTM revenue multiple from ourRule-of-40 regression, and our DCF model (13% WACC, 3% terminal growth), we reduce ourPT to $25 and maintain our Outperform rating.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 04:13 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 04:13 UTC F27E42.00.336.24.719.6725.0027%JanNA6,5405,83712M(5.9)11.0(16.9)08/24 25.00 USD(27.00OLD)F27E0.470.51FinancialsRevenues (M)Cost of Goods Sold (M)Operating Earnings (M)FCF (M) F25AF26E0.040.18--0.25F25AF26EF27ECAGR8211,0091,25323.5%169.88209.75259.302.1%(25.42)24.52124.046.7574.99161.44389.2%Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$35$30$25$2005/24 DETAILSNOTES FROM CALLBACK WITH CEO AND CFO:•Reduced full-year guidance increased conservatism due to macro uncertainty… even though May saw a rebound.Deal slippage was specific to April (May data shows improvement), as customers took time to digest the new macroenvironment. Management emphasized this was an attempt to avoid any added need to guide down, even thought thecurrent observed momentum is improved vs. April. Depending on the macro events, similar slowdowns could happen again,which are beyond company's control.•DOGE is a potential reason this down guidance is appropriate… we impute impact could be ~1%.Currently, theprimary impact of DOGE is the change in approval processes rather than actual cuts, as more approvals are now required toproceed. While US Federal exposure is low single digits, the whole exposure to US Public sector that could be influenced byDOGE is closer to 5%. We understand layoffs are in the ~15% range, so if it was 5% this would leave the level of headwindclose to 1%.•Most metrics remain strong under the covers…Gross retention rate remains strong in mid-90s. NRR would haveremained about constant without their end-of-life decision for Deception, which added ~$5MM of headwind this quarter.•Deception Q1 churn as expected; end-of-life additional $5MM ARR headwind.Q1 was guided to have $5MM of churn,and this is what happened. Remaining of year expected to have the other $5MM be evenly distributed across Q2, Q3, and Q4of this year.•Q2 guide strong? We think $5MM shifted from Q1 to Q2.Better sequential seasonality than normal given slipped dealsinto Q2. Management guided that most, but not all these deals have already closed. They have strong expectations theslipped deals will close in the quarter. Overall they commented that linearity and demand is much better this quarter.EXHIBIT 1:We expect SentinelOne's ARR growth to fall to mid-to-low-20s over next couple quarters.-2004006008001,0001,200ARR ($MM)Source: Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysisU.S. SMID-CAP SOFTWARE SentinelOne ARR 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%ARR YoY Growth 2 EXHIBIT 2:We estimate NRR dipped below 110% this quarter due to the Deception end-of-life. And we anticipate itstays pretty flat until it laps the effect of Deception. After that it may see some modest improvement as we get toeasier comps and have more and more backlog of new customers wh