光速商业公司（LSPD）：第四财季总结地点增长重新加速和软件追加销售是2026财年的主要驱动因素

2024A909.31.5x2.2x909.3 2025A1,076.81.2x1.0x1.8x1.5x1,077.0 2026E1,191.70.9x1.4x1,194.4 Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.com The Long View: Lightspeed Commerce IncInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We believe Lightspeed will benefit as merchants continue to replace morelegacy/outdated POS systems with new SaaS-based solutions along withunifying software with payments, a secular tailwind we see underpinningdouble-digit top-line growth over the medium term.•Strategic decisions to refocus the business on North American Retail andEuropean Hospitality verticals should help drive more profitable growth.•Until there is greater visibility around the medium-term Software revenueand ICP location growth trajectory, we see limited potential for a re-rating.Base Case,$11, +2%•Near-term GTV growth is pressured on softermacro; can re-accelerate to mid-single-digits inFY27 driven by growth verticals•GPV penetration reaches ~50% over the med-term, driven by higher attach in internationalmarkets•Software revenue growth accelerates to low-double-digits in FY27 as sales force productivityramps and new modules are released•Adj. EBITDA margins expand to ~7% in FY27•Multiple expansion is limited until there isgreater visibility around med-term software andICP location growth•PT: $11; CY26E Gross Profit: $576mn; TargetMultiple: ~2x.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Data Security: LSPD among others in the payments industry hold large amountsof customer data, including credit card data and personal information which can be used in harmful waysif exposed to bad actors.Qs to Mgmt:1) What are the biggest areas for improvement across LSPD's ESG strategy? 2) What are youprimarily investing in to maintain robust data/payments security? 3) What are the potential cost savingsfrom integrating more sustainable business practices 4) What are the main metrics you use to evaluateyour success in fostering employee wellness?ESG Sector Deep Dive: US Software, IT Services & PaymentsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View2220181614121086Upside Scenario,$14, +30%•GTV growth re-accelerates to high-single-digitsin FY27•GPV penetration can grow in excess of ~50%ove med-term from tapping into higher-risk-verticals•ARPU expands on the back of greater adoptionwith more profitable products (eComm in Retail+Kitchen Display System in Restaurants),pushing software growth back to a mid-teensclip in FY27•OpEx growth remains well contained with adj.EBITDA margins expanding to ~10% in FY27•OrganicICPcustomerlocationaccelerates in FY26/FY27•PT: $14; CY26E Gross Profit: $625mn; TargetMultiple: ~2.5x. 20252024growthDownside Scenario,$8, -26%•GTV growth remains sluggish in the low to mid-single-digit range through FY27•GPV penetration stalls and reaches~45%inFY27 as adoption is slower to rampinternationallyand across the larger GTVcustomer base•Competition across the POS market intensifies,resulting in higher OpEx and puts pressure onadj. EBITDA margin trajectory•Software revenue growth remains in HSDterritory as adoption of new modules acrossthe existing customer base is weaker-than-expected•ICP customer location declines persist•PT: $8; CY26E Gross Profit: $510mn; TargetMultiple: ~1.5x.Catalysts•Software ARPU uplift from adoption of flagshipproducts across the customer base•Incremental cost cuts pushing EBITDA marginshigher•Payments penetration rate expanding above~50% over med-term 2 Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionLightspeed Commerce IncLightspeed provides an omni-channel commerce platform that offers cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions to SMBs, sellingprimarily into the retail and hospitality verticals. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Montréal, Canada.Company Valuation/RisksLightspeed Commerce IncOur $11 PT is based on ~2x our CY26E gross profit estimate. Risks: consumer spending, competition, data security, regulation.Analyst Certification:I, Trevor Williams, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Alexander Glockner, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensatio