Grenergy 2027年战略计划：储能布局

RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetGRE.SQAdjusted EPSF24AGRE.SQ (EUR)2.11Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Grenergy's Strategic Plan 2027: The storage playGrenergy unveiled today its 2025-27 strategy update, code named ‘the storage play’, focusingon BESS both with hybridization (PV & BESS) and standalone batteries.Key strategic targets 2025-27:Grenergy targets a €450-500m energy EBITDA run-rateby 2027 (assuming assets in operation since the 1stof January), while pointing to a 2027achieved EBITDA of c.€420m, including €250-300m from energy (see Exhibit 1), well abovethe Bernstein estimate (€377m) and Bloomberg estimates (€297m). For context, the Bernstein2027e EBITDA estimate for the Energy segment amounts to €210m, including the impact ofdisposals and late commissioning (i.e. non run-rate). In terms of gross capacity (in operationor under construction), the company is aiming for 4.4GW solar and 18.8GWh BESS by 2027for €3.5bn, equivalent to adding +0.7GW p.a. of solar and +5.1GWh of BESS, highlighting arefocus on BESS compared to the last strategic plan for 2023-26 at 5GW solar and 4.1GWhBESS for €2.6bn, equivalent to +1.0GW p.a. solar and +1.4GWh p.a. BESS.Asset rotation & financing update:The company plans to fund its €3.5bn capex programthanks to an €0.8bn asset rotation, of which €0.2bn is already closed - and between 70%-80%project debt. Management stressed that the asset rotation is opportunistic by nature, butindicated that it could include phase 4-5 of Oasis Atacama, or phases of Central Oasis.Regarding the source of financing, Grenergy emphasised that this program is self-financed,with no need for a capital increase.Platform update.On top of the ongoingOasis Atacamadevelopment (2GW solar + 11GWhbatteries), Grenergy unveiled its newCentral Oasisplatform located in central Chile focusedon hybridization of PV with BESS, as well asGreenboxin Europe. Central Oasis is mostlycomposed of already existing projects, either with PV assets already in operation (Gran Teno,Tamango) or projects already in the backlog stage (Monte Aguila, Planchon).Greenbox,theEuropean standalone BESS strategy, targets 3GWh of standalone BESS in Europe (Spain,Italy, UK, Poland, Germany, Romania). As part of this plan, Grenergy announced a new flagshipproject in Spain,Oviedo, with standalone 150MW/600MWh BESS capacity. We note, however,that the markets mentioned today (UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the US) were alreadymentioned during the last CMD in 2023.Investment ImplicationsWe reiterate our Market-Perform rating and €44.1 per share target price.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 05:10 UTC Completion Date: 28 May 2025 21:50 UTC F25EF26E3.074.80FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRReported EPS2.113.074.80--Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)€65€60€55€50€45€40€35€3005/24 DETAILSGrenergy presented today its 2025-27 strategy update, refocusing on BESS both with hybridization (PV & BESS) andstandalone batteries.Key strategic targets 2025-27:Grenergy targets a €450-500m energy EBITDA run-rate by 2027 (assuming assets inoperation since the 1stof January), while pointing at a 2027 achieved EBITDA of c.€420m, including €250-300m from energy(see Exhibit 1), well above the Bernstein estimate (€377m) and Bloomberg estimates (€297m). For context, the Bernstein2027e EBITDA estimate for the Energy segment amounts to €210m, including disposal impacts and commissionings late in theyear (i.e. not run-rate). In terms of gross capacity (in operation or under construction), the company is aiming for 4.4GW solar and18.8GWh BESS by 2027 for €3.5bn, equivalent to adding 0.7GW p.a. of solar and 5.1GWh of BESS, highlighting a refocus onBESS compared to the last strategic plan for 2023-26 (held in November 2023) at 5GW solar and 4.1GWh BESS for €2.6bn,equivalent to +1.0GW p.a. solar and 1.4GWh p.a. BESS.EXHIBIT 1:Grenergy key strategic targets 2025-27Source: GrenergyEXHIBIT 2:Bernstein estimates vs Bloomberg consensus€mEBITDA BernsteinEBITDA consensus% diff.Net profit BernsteinNet profit consensus% diff.Net debt BernsteinNet debt consensus% diff.Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysisAsset rotation & financing update :The company plans to fund its €3.5bn capex program thanks to a €0.8bn asset rotation,of which €0.2bn is already closed - and between 70%-80% project debt. Management stressed that the asset rotation isopportunistic by nature, but indicated that it could include phase 4-5 of Oasis Atacama, or phases of Central Oasis (see below).Regarding the source of financing, Grenergy emphasised that this program is self-financed, with no need for a capital increase.EUROPEAN UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY 2025 e2026 e2027 e208.6296.2377.5212.3209.1297.1-2%42%27%86.3132.2161.7100.964.795.4-14%104%69%8521,3431,9598291,4792,1023%-9%-7%E