路威酩轩：管理层在MGC离职后有望重振迪奥

Global Luxury GoodsLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SERatingOutperformPrice TargetMC.FPAdjusted EPSMC.FP (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.downDior recently confirmed that Maria Grazia Chiuri is stepping down as Creative Director forwomenswear. A successor has yet to be named.Speculation surrounding Maria Grazia Chiuri’s departure has swirled since late-2024.This may not have aligned with Maria Grazia Chiuri’s plans for her own tenure at Dior, andhad likely generated significant internal friction at the fashion house over the past six months(see Weekend Consumer Blast: How a slowdown in Global Luxury Goods drives the CreativeDirector carousel).Settling the Creative Director debate at Dior was one of our key concerns at LVMH.Dior represents ~20% of LVMH F&LG revenues. Flagging performance at the brand hasweighed on F&LG growth over the past few quarters, as Dior bore the brunt of significant‘value for money’ concerns from consumers (see LVMH: Chanel's readacross to Dior). Achange in creative leadership brings a fresh opportunity to reinvigorate the brand.We remain constructive on LVMH for 2H25E as management continues to attack andresolve problems at Dior, W&S, W&J, and Selective Retailing.Concurrent difficultiesacross divisions at LVMH had moved the stock to the border of high quality and self-help (seeGlobal Luxury Goods: Pulling back from the brink in FY25e). So, while we expect 1H25E tobe meager, we give credit to management that they will be able to attack and resolve theproblems on the table. Reviving Dior is the most important of these. New creative energy is astep in the right direction.We keep Hermès and Richemont ahead of LVMH in our portfolio, but would buy LVMH insteps.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 12:03 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 12:03 UTC 600.00 EURF24AF25EF26E26.0724.1726.20FinancialsF24ARevenues (M)84,683 1,418.18 246,070275,026 F25EF26ECAGR83,50586,621--F26E18.518.5Close Date483.65600.0024%EDMFYEDecDiv Yield2.6%EV (EUR) (M)Performance12MAbsolute (%)(32.1)EDM (%)9.8Relative (%)(41.9)€850€800€750€700€650€600€550€50005/24 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate LVMH Outperform, PT €600.00BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingMC.FPOEUREDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.GLOBAL LUXURY GOODS I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEWe value LVMH on a target 1.75x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, applied to a blended 24M forward EPS forecast, arrivingat a target price of EUR600.RISKSLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEOn the downside:1. Post COVID-19 normalization could swing consumer spending back to experiences from products, which could continue tocreate growth headwinds, especially during an economic downturn, with consumers allocating a limited budget to discretionaryspending;2. Escalating geopolitical tensions could impact the feel-good factor, directly impacting consumer demand, and therefore LVMHand the luxury sector;3. Higher competition in beauty retail – especially in the USA – and continuing pressure on makeup can weigh heavily on Sephora.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Lar