伯灵顿百货公司（BURL）：第一季度表现良好，维持财年指引

+1 917 344 8457Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594+7% RatingOutperformPrice TargetBURLBURL: Q1 good enough, FY guide maintainedGuidance including / excluding the lease impact. Earnings call is at 8:30AM ET (link).($1.24-$1.39).have grown, EPS guide is slightly lower: $8.31-8.91 vs. $8.55-$9.15 prior.$1.08-1.18.thereby maintaining prior margin guidance.$105m, with $500m remaining on its current share authorization.>-10%See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 12:00 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 12:00 UTC EXPECTED CHANGE TO CONSENSUS EARNINGS-7%-5%-3%No Change >+10%+3%+5% EXHIBIT 2:BURL FY 25 GuideIncludes impact of bankruptcy-acquired leasesFY'25 GuidanceLowComp growth0.0%Operating margin7.0%Diluted EPS8.55$MetricEPS shown is adjusted diluted EPSSource: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimatesU.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAIL Prior GuideHigh2.0%7.3%9.15$ EXHIBIT 3:BURL Q2 Guide and H2 25 GuideIncludes impact of bankruptcy-acquired leasesQ2'25 GuidanceCurrent GuideLowComp growth0.0%Operating margin4.1%Diluted EPS1.08$Implied H2 GuideCurrent GuideLowComp growth0.0%Operating margin8.4%Diluted EPS5.63$MetricMetricSource: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimatesEXHIBIT 4:Q2-Q4 '25 Implied GuideIncludes impact of bankruptcy-acquired leases2Q-4Q 2025 Implied GuidancePrior GuideLowHighMidpointComp growth0.3%2.3%Operating margin7.7%7.8%Diluted EPS7.31$7.76$MetricSource: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimatesEXHIBIT 5:Q2'25 Guide Including vs Excluding Bankruptcy Lease ImpactQ2'24ReportedTotal Sales (implied)2,466Sales growth13.4%Comp sales growth5.0%Adj. EBIT (implied)Adj. EBIT Margin (implied)4.7%Adj. EBIT Margin Improvement160 bpsAdj. EPS1.20$Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysisU.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAIL BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingBURLSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.U.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAIL I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYBurlington Stores IncWe use a three part approach: (1) historical premium/discount to a basket of US retail stocks, (2) DCF, and (3) P/E regressionacross a basket of quality Consumer stocks, on the basis of three-year sales growth.We set a $380 price target using a P/E multiple of 24x against our forward FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $15.60.RISKSBurlington Stores IncDownside risks:•Narrowing of value differential with broader market•Quicker than anticipated saturation of Burlington stores in the US•Continued increases in US retail and distribution center wagesRATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index