伯灵顿百货（BURL）：第一季度底线超预期但财年指引REIT；BURL依然前景良好

6.06 2025A2026E2027E10,634.811,372.412,377.910,634.811,487.012,586.01,076.31,152.21,331.78.179.2611.11 Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comMantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.comCarlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.comTy-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.comMina Solujic * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4298 | msolujic@jefferies.com What We See Ahead1) Unit Growth Opportunity.Based on the strong productivity of smaller-format stores, BURL plansfor 100 net new stores in F'26 and 400 net new stores over the next 4 years. We continue to seean opportunity for 2,000 units over time.2) Robust Purchasing Opportunity Exists.With investments made to grow their purchasingteam and an industry-wide surplus in inventory (other Off-Price peers have recently echoed thissentiment), mgmt noted that they are well-positioned for the robust buying opportunity that exists.Mgmt is focusing on offering great value to the consumer, improving sales trends, and continuingcost management.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Burlington StoresInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•BURL is the smallest and least-profitable of the major off-price retailers, andwe believe that it has a significant top-line and margin runway ahead thatis not yet fully factored into estimates.•BURL offers a unique combination of unit growth potential, a pathway forsustainable positive comps, and credible margin opportunities, with thesupport of secular industry tailwinds, all of which we believe should helpshares command a premium to group.Base Case,$300, +26%•BURL remains a beneficiary of the consumermigration toward off-price.•Near term, lapping of significant freight andsupplychain pressures provide underlyingmargin benefits.•BURL drives sustainable top-line growth andcan drive op margins to past prior peaks.•FY'27E EPS: $11.05; $300 PT based on blended~27x P/E and ~16x EV/EBITDA.Sustainability MattersTop material issue(s): 1) Energy Management.BURL is committed to maximizing energy efficiency andscaling its renewable energy operations.2) GHG Emissions.Like others in its industry, BURL recognizesthat a responsible business is one that manages its impact and acts as an environmental steward.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 60% by 2030;2)achieve 20% of energyconsumed to be provided by renewable sources by 2030;3)operate a smaller store prototype that is15,000 square feet smaller, reducing resources, and requiring lower energy consumption with 100% LEDlighting.Qs to mgmt: 1)What are some of the challenges you foresee in transitioning to smaller store sizes?2)What cost savings do you expect by becoming more energy efficient?3)How does labor managementaffect your strategic priorities?Multiline and Specialty Retailers & Distributors ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$360, +51%•In addition to accelerating the consumermigration to off-price, a consumer slowdownfuels ongoing opportunistic inventory and realestate opportunities in F'24 and F'25.•Comps outperform as consumers focus onvalue and assortment execution improves.•SSS upside and accelerated unit growth drivestronger-than-expected top-line growth.•Margin initiatives progress more rapidly thanexpected, driving better earnings results.•FY'27E EPS: $12.15; $360 PT based on ~30x P/E. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View40035030025020015010020252024Downside Scenario,$190, -20%•Traffic recovers slower than expected,asconsumer migration online proves permanentandimpacts the off-price sector,whichhistorically has been more insulated.•Brand and retailers learn to operate on leanerinventorylevels,driving structural inventoryconstraints.•Margin initiatives drive lower productivityimprovementthan expected.Op marginsremain below historical peaks.•Pace of unit growth slows weighing on revenuegrowth.•FY'27E EPS: $9.39; $190 PT based on ~20x P/E.Catalysts•Market dislocation could provide improvedaccess to goods over the medium term•Implementation of margin driving initiativesunder CEO Michael O'Sullivan and new COOTravis Marquette•Margin tailwinds related to supply chain•Rollout of new smaller store prototype (25k sf)•Potential repurchase activity 3 Company DescriptionBurlington StoresBurlington is an off-price retailer featuring an extensive selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise at up to 60% off traditional retail prices,including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, ba