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2024A2025E6.3212.9921.0445,042.759,019.8-45,042.760,091.4NM55.4x34.2x 2026E31.9773,073.070,730.022.5x Akash Tewari * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 284-3416 | atewari@jefferies.comAmy Li, PharmD * | Equity Analyst+1 (332) 236-6802 | ali8@jefferies.comPhoebe Tan * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8356 | ptan1@jefferies.comAnastasia Parafestas * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-6648 | aparafestas@jefferies.comKatherine Wang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8985 | kwang4@jefferies.comManoj Eradath, MBBS, Ph.D. * | EquityAssociate+1 (202) 707-6443 | meradath@jefferies.comZaki Molvi, PhD * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2726 | zmolvi@jefferies.com Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: LillyInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe're bullish on LLY for several reasons: 1) The company has an attractivegrowth profile in a recessionary environment. 2) We're bullish on GLP-1 andsee it as one of the biggest drug classes of all time. We think Mounjaro couldshow strong T2DM outcomes data, and strong SELECT data opens the doorfor broader payer adoption and potential CMS coverage for the GLP-1 classin obesity. 3) We like LLY's next-gen oral GLP-1 and think it could come closeto Mounjaro-like efficacy in the long term. 4) We think there is potential near-term upside for LLY on revenue and EPS growth.Base Case,$1057, +47%Base case; PT: $1057•GLP-1: ~$80B peak sales•Oral Orforglipron: ~$39B peak sales•Alzheimer’s (Donanemab + Remternetug): ~$4.4B•LT Operating Margin: 49%-50%Sustainability MattersTop material issue:LLY aims to create medicine that makes life better for people worldwide. Thecompany dedicates itself to continual progress and improving its positive impact on people and the planet.Company targets:1)LLY works to continually reduce its environmental footprint across the life cyclesof its products and supply chain. To track its progress, it measures and manages energy and wateruse, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the generation of waste and wastewater throughout itsmanufacturing process.2)LLY’s approach to social impact starts with its medicine and its goal to expandaccess to quality healthcare. It strives to provide an inclusive higher-performance workplace.3)LLY iscommitted to upholding its high standards of corporate conduct in all business dealings around the world.Qs to mgmt: 1)What efforts would you make to expand affordable quality healthcare to resource-limitedareas?2)What are your specific goals for community engagement this year and beyond?Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$1300, +81%Upside; PT $1300•GLP-1: ~$150B peak sales est.•Oral Orforglipron: ~$50B peak sales•Alzheimer’s (Donanemab + Remternetug): ~$7.9B•LT GM: ~50%+ Downside Scenario,$450, -37%Downside; PT $450•GLP-1: ~$45B peak sales est.•(Donanemab+Remternetug):Donanemab and ~$0B for Remternetug•LT GM: high 30%-low 40%Catalysts2025: SURPASS-CVOT Topline Data2025: Data from Orforglipron Ph.32027: SURMOUNT-MMO Primary Completion Date ~$5Bfor3 = = LLY is acquiring SiteOne for up to $1Bn (note up front wasn't disclosed) adding a NaV1.8 (STC-004) and follow-ons to their pain portfolio = =LLY announced that they're acquiring SiteOne Therapeutics for up to $1Bn, gaining full rights to SiteOne's lead candidate STC-004 (oral NaV1.8 inhibitor)which is a Ph.2-ready non-opioid tx for chronic pain. SiteOne reported Ph.1 SAD/MAD data for STC-004 in Feb - STC-004 was reported to be well-tolerated across all dose levels, rapidly absorbed w/ a half-life supportive of daily dosing, and showed linear PK w/ reportedly low inter-individualvariability.As reminder, LLY has been interested in non-opioid approaches to pain and has flagged the need for more innovation in the space. When we hostedLLY CSO Dan Skrovonsky in Boston last year (HERE), mgmt flagged that they see opportunities for incretins in pain (e.g. chronic lower back pain) butthey also are looking at multiple MOA's & don't plan on discussing specific mechanisms until they start a Ph.3 which could be in the next ~4 years.LLY currently has a few early phase trials in pain incl. Ph.2 for P2X7 inhibitor, Ph.2 for mazisotine in diabetic peripheral neuropathy w/ est PCD Jul'25(N~410), Ph.2 for epiregulin Ab (N~350) w/ est PCD Jun'26, and an AT2R antagonist in Ph.1 healthy volunteer studies..Source: Company Presentations= = SiteOne STC-004's Ph.1 data shows PK profile compatible w/ QD dosing and early efficacy = =#1. PK profile supports QD dosing w/ faster Tmax vs Journavx (~1-1.6h vs ~3h)In SAD, following single oral doses of 5mg-120mg, plasma conc's showed relatively fast absorption with a median Tmax of ~1 hour across all cohorts.Terminal t1/2 ranged from ~25-37h, supporting QD coverage. Variability was moderate - CV's for AUC