索尼集团：索尼金融分拆：更简洁的结构降低‘企业集团折价’

FY3/25AFY3/26EFY3/27E12,957.111,516.812,186.6157.66182.71195.5513,316.913,348.913,403.30.4x0.4x0.4x 206.730.4x Atul Goyal, CFA * | Equity Analyst65 6551 3965 | agoyal@jefferies.comShunki Nakamura, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst+81(0)80 8120 7130 | snakamura@jefferies.com The Long View: Sony GroupInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Despite a large and transition-led slowdown in Games,Sony hasmanaged to deliver impressive earnings growth.•Given the high quality of Sony's earnings and a likely boost from Gamesin the next 2-5 years, we believe the stock is attractively valued. In ourview, Sony should be a core holding in long-term investors' portfolios.•Our SoTP-based PT is ¥4,910.Base Case,¥4910, +29%•In the past five years, Sony has delivered onthe turnaround that Mr. Yoshida cited when hejoined in 2014 (FY3/18 MTP of ¥500bn in OP).Today, both the size and quality of earningsare superior.•Earnings are driven by three main segments:Games, Image sensors, and Music. Sony is aleader in these duopoly/oligopoly businessesand is now investing to extend its lead for 5-10years.•Our SoTP-based PT is¥4,910.Threesegments drive 86% of value: Games, Music,and Image sensors. Games is the biggest,followed by Music.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue - Environment:Sony Group, a conglomerate engaged in electronic devicemanufacturing and content businesses, ranked #4 out of 560 in Nikkei BP ESG Brand Survey 2021with 80+ scores on Social and Integrity. We closely watch the company's ESG developments andcommitment to its 2050 zero environmental footprint, which directly impacts its value proposition andsupply chain risks.Company Targets:1) Pledged to achieve a 46% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 in order to becarbon-neutral. (2) Targeting to source 100% renewable electricity globally by 2040 by installing solarpanels at manufacturing sites. (3) Committed to reduce plastic packaging materials used for productsand promote recycling of end-of-life products.Qs to Mgmt:(1) Which companies are setting good benchmarks that Sony would like to emulate? (2)Does it build good governance scores as part of compensation for management?TSE Reforms:What do you think of TSE's reform push? Have you noticed any change in investors'Qs? While Sony is one of the best transformation case studies, does management see room forimprovement?Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥5649, +48%•Growth in Games, Music,and Image sensorsremains the key driver for the next severalyears.The investments/acquisitions thatSony is doing could drive a much higher-than-expected earnings trajectory in the future.•Expansion of PS5 cycles:We believe thatSony will handily win this game cycle with PS5and perhaps expand its lead (PS4 over XBO)with a long list of exclusive AAA titles to itscredit (much bigger lead than it had duringPS3 vs. XB360 era).•Based on higher estimates and multiples forthe above segments, our upside SoTP PT is¥5,649. Downside Scenario,¥2033, -47%•Competition in the console game market:IfNintendo partners with Microsoft and bringsGamePasson to Switch,it could changethe gaming landscape, and this could resultin increasing competition for Sony's gamebusiness.•Image sensors:Our base-case view is thatthis business will rebound next year, withgrowth recovery in high-end smartphones. Ifthat does not materialize, EPS could be lowerthan our estimates. These factors could resultin a lower PER of 12x for the group, resultingin a PT of ¥2,033.Catalysts•Updates on PS5 sales performance and newgame launches•Game IP adaptations for TV Series:God of War(Amazon Prime) andHorizon(Netflix) 2 Valuation - ¥4,910; BuyExhibit 1 - Jefferies Forecasts vs. Consensus.¥bRevenueOPNPEPSSource: Factset, Company Data, Jefferies Est.Exhibit 2 - Sony - SoTP Valuation.Source: Company Data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 4 - SoTP Valuation Exercise.GamesMusicImage SensorPicturesET&SValue of StakesTotalSource: Jefferies EstimatesExhibit 5 - SoTP Valuation per share.SOTP (Yen / Share)GamesMusicImage SensorMoviesEP&SOther StakesTotalSource: Jefferies estimatesExhibit 6 - PT Scenario Analysis.PT scenariosSony's stock price (¥)SoTP Based PT (¥)EPS %FY3/27e EPS (¥)PER (x)PT scenarios (¥)Source: Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - Sony - Financial Summary.P&L¥ bRevenueCost of RevenueGross ProfitSG&AOperating IncomeEbitdaInterest ExpenseOther costPretaxIncome TaxMinority interestNet profitEPS (on ex-Treasury shares)EPS growthGrowth & Margins & MultiplesRevenue growthGP growthOP growthNP growthGPMOPMNPMPERPBREV/EbitdaFCF yield (%)Cash flow¥ bNet IncomeD&AOtherChange in NWCCFOCapexOtherCFIDividends PaidOtherCFFNet Cash ChangeFCFSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important d