英美资源集团（AAL LN）：持有：Valterra分拆

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Simplification strategy takes a bigleap forward with thedemerger of ValterraSMC sale potentially in flux, potential De Beers IPO later thisyearMaintain Holdand liftTP to 2,100p(from 2,011p)Bon voyage:Valterra(VAL SJ, Hold, ZAR704.72)demerged from Anglo and listedon the LSE(as VALT LN)on 2 June 2025.Anglo still holds a 19.9% stake in Valterrawhich itexpects todivest in coming months.We adjust our estimates to account forthe demerger and Anglo’s share consolidation. Our revised target price is 2,100p(from 2,011p). We maintainaHold ratingon the stock.What if the SMC deal is altered?:Peabody (BTU US,not rated, CMP USD13.35)has indicated thatit iswilling to walk away from acquiring Anglo’s SMC assets postan ignition event at the Moranbah North mine as thecompanybelievesthat theremay be a Material Adverse Change (MAC) at the asset. Anglo has reiterated thatthere was a “small, contained ignition” at the mine,and thecompany isworking withstakeholders towards a safe restart at the operation.Managementtherefore doesnotbelieve that the MAC clause in the sale contract has been triggered. We analyse thepotential impact to Anglo’s balance sheet should a change to the terms of the saleoccurin“Anglo American–What is the SMC deal is altered?”(7 May 2025).Diamonds aren’t forever:Apotential De Beers IPO in 2025 or potentially 2026would conclude the streamlining for Anglo.We think the IPO proceeds may be usedfor deleveraging. As the diamond market is potentially in the trough of its cycle,thecompany may struggle to demerge its entire holding in one transaction. Should thisbe the case,we think Anglo could retain a minority stake in De Beers and divest ofthis over time (similar to Valterra). While our valuation of De Beers is USD5.6bn,wethink the market’s expectations are wide and therefore the ultimate realisable valuemay present risk to the value of Anglo or the rate of deleveraging.RetainHold,increaseTP to 2,100p:Ourtarget price is set as the average of SOTPEV/EBITDA and DCF valuations; it implies c5% downside. We maintainaHold ratingas we think the benefits of Anglo’s restructuring are largely pricedin, but we thinkNew Anglo may present a streamlined and focussed investment proposition toinvestors with strong volume growth over the next three to five years.Anglo American Plc(AAL LN)Hold: Valterra demerged ◆◆◆ 1.311.45-9.31.3222.61.87.47.0 100%AAL LNAAL.L12/2026e12/2027e1.751.962.372.55-25.9-23.31.792.1616.915.22.42.67.06.68.59.016002150270005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue27,35419,96118,67519,984EBITDA8,4607,2527,6148,062Depreciation & amortisation-3,072-2,515-2,212-2,379Operating profit/EBIT5,3884,7375,4025,682Net interest-746-630-540-438PBT-9243,9094,4774,837HSBC PBT-9243,9094,4774,837Taxation-1,864-1,485-1,701-1,838Net profit-3,0681,4801,8732,090HSBC net profit1,9371,4801,8732,090Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations8,1035,8715,6125,712Capex-5,532-4,404-3,397-3,361Cash flow from investment-5,135-3,978-2,881-2,743Dividends-1,026-596-629-809Change in net debt-781-1,323-2,076-2,141FCF equity2,5841,4672,2162,351Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets940940940940Tangible fixed assets40,84442,73243,91744,899Current assets17,09414,93517,25619,715Cash & others8,1679,49011,56613,707Total assets63,63863,36766,87270,314Operating liabilities9,0105,8296,1586,373Gross debt18,21018,21018,21018,210Net debt10,0438,7206,6444,503Shareholders' funds20,76021,50922,61823,763Invested capital41,70143,28844,38845,474Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue-10.8-27.0-6.47.0EBITDA-15.0-14.35.05.9Operating profit-25.9-12.114.05.2PBT-125.714.58.0HSBC EPS-33.8-17.933.711.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.60.50.40.4ROIC36.46.97.67.8ROE8.57.08.59.0ROA1.24.85.35.3EBITDA margin30.936.340.840.3Operating profit margin19.723.728.928.4EBITDA/net interest (x)11.311.514.118.4Net debt/equity35.227.719.211.9Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.21.20.90.6CF from operations/net debt80.767.384.5126.8Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)-2.531.311.751.96HSBC EPS (diluted)1.601.311.751.96DPS0.640.520.700.78Book value17.1319.0721.1922.26Financials & valuation:Anglo American Plc Valuation and risksWe adjust our valuation and target price to account for thedemerger of Valterra and Anglo’sshare consolidation. Our revised target price is 2,100p.ValuationCurrentprice:Target price:Up/downside:We value Anglo using the average of the fair values derived from ourDCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation approach and our EV/EBITDAmethodology. Our multiples component captures the impact of near-term commodity prices.We use the sale value for Coal and Nickel divisions and use the marketvalue for the PGM division in our valuations. We use a target 12-monthforward EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5x f