估算亚洲经济体缺失的出口

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKTheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent.ADB Economics Working Paper SeriesEstimating Asian Economies’ Missing ExportsFederico Ganz, Gonzalo Varela,and Kiyoshi TaniguchiNo. 784 | June 2025 Federico Ganz (federicoganz@gmail.com) is aconsultant at the Asian Development Bank (ADB).Gonzalo Varela (gvarela@worldbank.org) is the leadeconomist and program leader for the prosperityunit of the World Bank covering Brunei Darussalam,Malaysia, and the Philippines. Kiyoshi Taniguchi(ktaniguchi@adb.org) is the regional lead economistfor Central and West Asia at the Economic Researchand Development Impact Department, ADB. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444Some rights reserved. Published in 2025.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250200-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250200-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to useCorrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Turkey” as Türkiye. www.adb.orgthe ADB logo.Notes: ABSTRACTIntegration into global markets serves as a powerful catalyst for economic growth in developingeconomies, offering the potential to create high paying jobs and foster development. This paperuses the structural gravity model to quantify potential merchandise exports for Asian economies,identify destinations with significant untapped potential, and assess how factors such as cuttingthe time required to export can improve export performance. Our preliminary findings reveal thatAsian economies, on average, have sustained missing exports equivalent to 6% of grossdomestic product. While Asian economies perform relatively well internationally, there remainsroom for improvement to match top global standards.Keywords:missing exports, gravity model, global financial crisis JEL codes:F14, M31, M38, O24 I.IntroductionIt is well established that integration into global markets is a powerful catalyst for economic growthin developing economies, offering the potential to create high paying jobs and foster development.The link between exports and positive development outcomes is supported by extensive literature.For instance, Wagner (2007) highlights the relationship between exports and productivity, whileAghion et al. (2018) explore the role of exports in driving innovation. Additionally, Munch andSkaksen (2008) demonstrate how export activities can enhance skills and capital premia. Despitethis potential, many developing economies struggle to fully exploit their export capacity, often dueto market failures or suboptimal policy choices.A critical question arises: how can we determine an economy’s “export potential,” and where dothe main opportunities lie regarding untapped export destinations? Addressing these questions isessential for guiding effective trade policies and exp