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verisk物业估算解决方案：季度房地产报告（2024年10月-12月）

2025-02-25-VeriskA***

AI智能总结

核心观点与关键数据

2024年第四季度保险行业面临挑战，灾害风险模式发生转变。 传统冬季风暴模式被晚季飓风取代，导致灾害索赔激增113%，总索赔量同比增长36%。东南地区受飓风影响，成本增长六倍于全国平均水平。

关键趋势：

索赔模式变化： 飓风相关索赔占比9%，同比增长1100%；洪水和风灾索赔分别增长200%。
索赔严重程度： 初步数据显示平均严重程度下降7%，但考虑到索赔成熟度，预计最终平均重置成本价值（RCV）将升至约18,600美元。
飓风米尔顿影响： 生成近187,000项索赔，总RCV 26.8亿美元，其中8%仍未解决。平均RCV为每项19,100美元，处理周期延长至11.2天。

成本趋势：

劳动力成本： 美国和加拿大分别增长1.42%和1.39%，12个月累计增长5.26%和4.64%。混凝土工匠成本增长显著，美国12个月增长26.31%，加拿大增长24.80%。
材料成本： 美国和加拿大分别增长2.63%和2.47%。美国油漆材料增长2.89%，加拿大木材增长4.03%（季度增长，年度增长1.75%）。
燃料成本： 美国下降2.84%，加拿大上升3.21%，地区差异明显。

重建成本：

住宅重建成本： 同比增长4.5%，各州均出现增长，堪萨斯州增长6.91%，华盛顿州增长6.35%。
商业重建成本： 同比增长5.5%，罗德岛州增长10.14%，堪萨斯州增长8.37%。

经济指标：

建筑商信心： NAHB/Wells Fargo住房市场指数回升，当前销售条件和潜在买家流量改善，但未来六个月销售预期下降。
就业与职位空缺： 建筑业失业率下降，职位空缺增加。
建筑许可： 同比下降19.98%，非住宅新建筑下降最大，怀俄明州增长44.68%，特拉华州下降45.65%。

2025年展望：

重建成本预计温和增长：住宅重建成本增长1.98%，商业重建成本增长2.22%。
需要精准数据分析应对风险模式变化。

2 / © Verisk /verisk.comExecutive summary............................................................................................................................................3Claims trends.....................................................................................................................................................4Volume..............................................................................................................................................................4Regional impact analysis..........................................................................................................................................................5Claims by type of loss..........................................................................................................................................................6Severity..........................................................................................................................................................7Hurricane Milton..........................................................................................................................................................8Pricing data services..........................................................................................................................................................12Labor and materials..........................................................................................................................................................12Labor costs..........................................................................................................................................................13Labor costs by trade..........................................................................................................................................................14Materials..........................................................................................................................................................14Fuel costs..........................................................................................................................................................17Construction and reconstruction trends.................................................................................................................18Residential reconstruction costs.............................................................................................................................18Commercial reconstruction costs...............................................................................................................................18Economic indicators.......................................................................................................................................18Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................................22 © Verisk /verisk.com/3Return to Table of ContentsThe insurance industry faced unprecedented challenges in Q4 2024as weather patterns continued to evolve beyond traditional seasonalexpectations. Late-season hurricanes, rather than winter storms, drovecatastrophe claims to surge 113% year over year, while total claimsrose 36%. This shift in risk patterns demands new approaches to riskassessment and resource planning, particularly in the Southeast wherecosts increased at six times the national rate following hurricane activity.We’re tracking several pivotal trends that will shape operations in 2025.Reconstruction costs continue their upward trajectory, with commercialproperties seeing more pronounced growth at 5.5% year over yearcompared with residential at 4.5%.Labor costs outpaced materials—a reversal from Q3 patterns.However, fuel costs provided some relief, decreasing by 8.62%in the U.S. and 9.77% in Canada.Together, these trends point to an industry environment thatrequires precise data analytics and forward-lookinginsights to navigate successfully. 4 / © Verisk /verisk.comClaims TrendsThe fourth quarter of 2024 highlighted the evolving nature of catastrophic risks facing our industry.While Q4 traditionally brings winter storm challenges, this quarter saw a dramatic shift in loss patterns,with late-season hurricane activity creating increased demands on claims operations. Total claimsvolume rose 36% year over year, driven by a 113% increase in catastrophe (CAT) claims—presenting bothchallenges and opportunities for enhancing resilience in our rapidly changing climate.VolumeAs we analyze Q4 2024 data, a clear pattern emerges, showing how weather-related risks continue toevolve. The quarter departed significantly from the 2023 pattern, with late-season hurricanes rather thanwinter storms driving claim volumes. This shift particularly affected our Southeastern partners withsubstantial operational challenges in Florida and Georgia.Geographic an

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