5月ISM：短周期工业似乎正缓慢好转

Restricted - External U.S. Multi-IndustryNEUTRALU.S. Multi-IndustryJulian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661julian.mitchell@barclays.comBCI, USJack Cauchi+1 212 526 9154jack.cauchi@barclays.comBCI, USKenyon C Pelletier+1 212 526 7516kenyonc.pelletier@barclays.comBCI, USMatthew Laflash+1 212 526 8639matthew.laflash@barclays.comBCI, USJimmy Yunhao Jiang+1 212 526 6042jimmy.jiang@barclays.comBCI, USHaemaru Chung+1 212 526 4758haemaru.chung@barclays.comBCI, US We show below how MI stocks have tended to behave in the NTM following a PMI trough below50, and how they have fared since the most recent PMI trough of mid-2023.FIGURE 2. This time was notdifferent- the stocks that have led the MI sector since the PMI trough inmid-'23 are consistent with the historical share price performanceafterPMI troughs sub-50TTPHLIIETNROKPNRJCIDOVHUBBSWKMMMRRXITWKMTHONEMRROPFTVALLEAverage-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Relative Price Perf. since June 2023TroughAvg NTM Relative Price Perf. following PMI Trough below 50Note: VRT is >150% NTM Price Perf. following PMI Trough below 50; VRT is >350% Relative Price Perf. since 2023 TroughSource: Barclays Research, Company data, Bloomberg; US ISMWe show below relative share price performance since the June 2023 trough for stocks in ourcoverage with shorter trading history.2 FIGURE 4. MI stocks tend to outperform slightly in the first threeFIGURE 5. ...And tend to outperform HSD-LDD over the NTM13.7%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%VRTPHETNROKLIITTRRXJCIDOVKMTPNRSWKITWEMRMMMROPHUBBHONALLEAverageNTM Relative Perf. after PMI breakabove 50Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.Source: Barclays Research, BloombergIn terms of how MI stocks have performed historically when the PMI breaks through 50, we showthis below.The recent / current PMI downturn was / is longer than most.3 FIGURE 6. The recent / current PMI downturn was / is one of the longer downturns below 50Source: Barclays Research, US ISMThe PMI since mid-2023 has recovered at a more gradual pace than was the case in most priorrecovery periods.FIGURE 7. The US PMI is recovering more gradually than normal,aftera slow descentDate when PMItroughedPMI level at troughPMI 6 months aftertrough10/1/200140.852.411/1/200248.549.04/1/200346.155.212/1/200834.546.311/1/201248.950.51/1/201647.852.98/1/201649.957.612/1/201947.252.64/1/202041.559.36/1/202346.047.4Median46.752.5Average45.152.3Source: Barclays Research, US ISM2 June 2025 PMI 12 months aftertroughAvg. NTM Change inPts/Month49.00.758.40.860.61.255.81.856.30.655.60.759.30.860.71.160.71.648.50.258.40.857.41.0 FIGURE 8. Short Cycle Industrial stocks tend to leadoffthe PMI bottom – this time they performed well ahead of the PMI trough (back in 2H22 /1H23), boosted by conceptual / secular growth tailwindsPast performance is no guarantee of future returns.Source: Barclays Research, ISM; Note: Stocks included: DOV, EMR, ETN, IR, ITW, KMT, MMM, PH, ROK.FIGURE 9. Multi-Industry 2024 vs 2025 Pricing Change EstimatesFIGURE 10.Tariffshave brought about an elevated pricingenvironment in the 2H25ALLECARRDOVEMRFTVGTESHONHUBBIRITWJCILIIMMMNVTOTISPNRROKSWKTTVNTAvg.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2025 Pricing Change Y-o-Y (%)2024 Pricing Change Y-o-Y (%)ALLEDOVFTVGTESHONHUBBIRJCIMMMNVTPNRROKSWKTTAvg.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%2H25 Price ContributionPre-Covid Avg. Price ContributionNote: LII >6% in the 2H25Source: Barclays Research, Company DataSource: Barclays Research, Company DataThe ISM Prices Index reached 69.4 in May vs 69.8 in April. Electrical equipment and HVAC nameshave seen outsized price and price/cost tailwinds in the last couple of years – we think thesetailwinds are subdued for electricals in 2025, but are likely to remain more resilient for HVACcompanies in 2025 (helped by the refrigerant changes).In the near term, companies (whether they disclose pricing explicitly or not) where we areleast concerned about price losing steam (over the NTM) are ETN, CARR, LII, TT. Companieswhere we are most concerned about price are SWK and OTIS. ALLE, HUBB, and NVT aretricky to call. For more details on this topic, please see our recent note.We see no evidence of PMIs decoupling from MI fundamentalsBack in 2022–early 2023, it was popular in the investment community to highlight that, amidst alot of 'secular growth/ shoring / stimulus' talk, the traditional linkage between industrialcompanies’ top-line growth and the PMIs had ‘broken down’.2 June 20255 FIGURE 11. We expect median MI orders to increase +LSD% in the June quarterFIGURE 12. ISM New Orders increased in May…FIGURE 13. …And we expect a gradual recovery in SCI organic salesgrowth over the NTM35.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.00Q4 15Q4 16Q4 17Q4 18Q4 19Q4 20Q4 21Q4 22Q4 23Q4 24Q4 25ESCI Average Organic Sales Growth (LHS)ISM New Orders 2Q Lag35.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.00-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Q4 14Q2 15