外汇市场

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Main EventsMoody’s downgrades US sovereign rating to Aa1Trade deals take centre stage; US secures deals with China andthe UKCentral banks contemplate whether to cut or pause policy ratesto navigate trade uncertaintySee our latest insights inCurrency Outlook:Trust issues,9May2025,andinEmergingMarketsFX Roadmap:Goldilocks & the three bears,30May2025.FX MarketKey Dates1 MayBoJ keeps policy rate on hold at 0.5% and revises down both growth andinflationforecasts; USD-JPY rises 1.9%2 MayUS Nonfarm payrolls print at 177k (vs 138k expected); DXY falls 0.2%7 MayPBoC cuts the seven-day purchase rate by 10bps to 1.4%; USD-CNH rises 0.1%8 MayUS secures a trade deal with the UK; DXYrises 1.0%BoEvotes 5-4 to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%; GBP-USD falls 0.6%Norges Bank opts to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%; EUR-NOK flatRiksbank opts to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%; EUR-SEK rises 0.1%12 MayUS-Chinatemporary trade deal madeover the weekend; DXY rises 1.4%13 MayUS inflation prints softer than expected, with both headline and core CPI at 0.2% MoM(vs 0.3% expected); DXY falls 0.8%16 MayCredit rating agency Moody’s downgrades the USsovereign rating from AAA to Aa119 MayThe UK secures a trade deal with the EU, although further talks were required tofinalize parts of the deal. GBP-USD rises 0.5%.20 MayRBA cuts its policy rate by 25bp to 3.85%, RBA Governor Michele Bullock states thatthe board had also considered a 50bp cut; AUD-USD falls 0.6%21 MayUK inflation prints higher than expected, headline CPI rose to 3.5% YoY in April (vs3.3% expected); GBP-USD rises 0.6%22 MayPresident Trump’s budget bill approved in Congress23 MayPresident Trump threatens a 50% tariff against all EU imports; EUR-USD rises 0.9%25 MayProposed 50% tariffs on EU imports delayed until 9 July27 MaySuper long JGB bonds rise amid speculation that the government may reduceissuance ofdebt; USD-JPY rises 1.2%28 MayRBNZ cuts its policy rate by 25bps, however the press conference and statementwere more hawkish than expected; NZD-USD rises 0.2%29 MayUSCourt of International Tradeblocks most of Donald Trump’s global tariffs afterdetermining them to be illegal30 MayUS trade court decision put on hold after President Trump successfully appeals tofederal courtMay2025 ◆◆◆ Summary:Deal or no deal?The DXY ended May broadly flat, down just 0.1% over the month. The index gained support throughvarious trade deals but was still troubled byUSstructural concerns and policy uncertainty. Much ofthe first half of May was centred around US trade negotiations. On 8 May, the US secured a tradedeal with the UK, granting greater access to UK agricultural markets in exchange for tariff reductions.This was quickly followed by a US-Chinatemporaryagreement, which saw Chinese tariffs on USgoods cut from 145% to 30% and US tariffs lowered from 125% to 10%. However,USDsentimentturned more negative in the second half of the month as attention shifted towards US structural andpolitical concerns. Softer US inflation data on 13 May, a sovereign credit downgrade by Moody’s on16 May and President Trump’s budget bill beingapproved in Congress all weighed on the dollar. On29 May, the DXY dropped 0.6% after theUS Courtof International Trade blocked most of PresidentTrump’sglobal tariffs after ruling them illegal–though this decision was put on hold the next day.EUR-USD was not able to mimic its April success,with thepairending May down 0.1%. Theexchange ratestruggled to rally purely on being a dollar alternative and focus turned back to tradeissues with the US and ECB rhetoric. The month was dominated by dovish comments from a host ofECB speakers who favoured another rate cut at the next meetinggiven tariff risks. On 23 May,President Trump threatened a potential 50% tariff against all EU imports to the US, stating that tradetalk negotiations were “goingnowhere”. Although, just two days later, he delayed the imposition ofthesetill9 July.GBP-USD fared well in May, ending the month up 0.8%. The currency pair benefitted from somepositive domesticdatareleases and securing trade deals with the EU and US. On 8 May, the UKentered a trade agreement with the US which saw the UK benefit from tariff cuts to steel, aluminiumand automobile exports. The same day saw the BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.25%,althoughthe decision was split 5-4. On 19 May, the UK secured another trade deal, this time with the EU.Although, a large portion of the deal,such as UK participation intheEU’s internal energy market,were yet to be finalised. The latter half of May also saw some positive data releases for the UK, suchas higher than expected UK inflation and a strong retail sales print.Elsewhere:JPY–Bond troublesUSD-JPY climbed sharply in the first half of May but reversed this trend in the latter half of the month.USD-JPY rose 1.9% o