芝浦机电（6590）：收益回顾：先进封装的稳定需求持续

- FY3/25AFY3/26E80.982.5-83.314.112.0787.80610.80 FY3/27E84.291.213.3683.00 Masahiro Nakanomyo * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6142 | mnakanomyo@jefferies.comHisako Furusumi * | Equity Associate+813 5251 6158 | hfurusumi@jefferies.com The Long View: Shibaura MechatronicsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Shibaura Mechatronics has traditionally had a business portfoliocenteredon FPDs,but it has been developing products that candifferentiatethe company in niche markets,with a focus onsemiconductors (global niche top strategy), shifting its business portfolioto semiconductors, and improving profitability.•The stock market is particularly focused on orders and sales trendsfor semiconductor bonding for CoWoS. While the CoWoS process isexpected to change in the future, the company has built a relationship oftrust with a major customer for nearly 10 years for advanced packages.The company will continue to introduce products that meet customerneeds.Base Case,¥11000, +34%•Although WFE is expected to fluctuate inthefuture,the company's SPE,includingthe company's global niche top products, isexpected to maintain a stable earnings levelas a whole, although there will be fluctuationsfor each product.•Price target ¥11,000 (P/E of 15x on FY3/27E).Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Product Design & Lifecycle Management. 2) Supply Chain Management. 3)GHG Emissions.Company Targets:GHG Emission: Scope 1/2 50% cut at FY2030 compared with FY2019Qs to Mgmt:1) The company formulated an environmental charter. As an environmental promotionsystem, it has established an officer in charge of the environment and a company-wide globalenvironmental council under the president. Additionally, the company announced it will set quantitativeenvironmental targets. But what is the strategy for achieving the targets? 2) In terms of theenvironment, Shibaura Mechatronics is working to reduce environmental impact and risks. How doesthe products compare to the environmental performance of its competitors?Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View18k16k14k12k10k800060004000Upside Scenario,¥16000, +96%•Increase in orders for semiconductors,especially for CoWoS, and maintain high levels•Steady expansion of profitability•Launch of a New Global Niche Top Product•Upside to ¥16,000 (P/E of 20x applied to EPSof ¥800). 20252024Downside Scenario,¥6000, -27%•Continue to adjust wafer cleaning equipmentand power semiconductors•Increased competition in CoWoS•Downside to ¥6,000 (P/E of 12x applied to EPSof ¥500).Catalysts•Quarterly order, sales trends•CoWoS Order Trends and Future Prospects•Launch of new global niche top products suchas new semiconductor bonding products andfreeze cleaning equipment for masks 2 Table 1 - Shibaura Mechatonics Earnings Summary.FY3/21ActualFY3/22ActualFY3/23ActualFY3/24ActualFY3/25ActualCo E (Mar 19)Co E OldJFE EFactSetFY3/26Co EJFE E NewJFE E OldFactSetFY3/27JFE E NewJFE E OldFactSetFY3/28JFE E NewFirst Quarter (Apr-Jun)Q1 FY3/23ActualQ1 FY3/24ActualQ1 FY3/25ActualQ1 FY3/26JEF EFactSetSecond Quarter (Jul-Sep)Q2 FY3/23ActualQ2 FY3/24ActualQ2 FY3/25ActualQ2 FY3/26JEF EFactSetFirst Half (Apr-Sep)H1 FY3/23ActualH1 FY3/24ActualH1 FY3/25ActualH1 FY3/26JEF EFactSetThird Quarter (Oct-Dec)Q3 FY3/23ActualQ3 FY3/24ActualQ3 FY3/25ActualFourth Quarter (Jan-Mar)Q4 FY3/23ActualQ4 FY3/24ActualQ4 FY3/25ActualCo E (Mar 19)JFE EFactSetSecond Half (Oct-Mar)H2 FY3/23ActualH2 FY3/24ActualH2 FY3/25ActualCo E (Mar 19)JFE EFactSetSource: Jefferies estimates, company data, FactSetForex SensitivityForex impact is relatively minorValuationPrice Target of ¥11,000 (previously ¥13,000) calculated on P/E of 15x (18x) applied to FY3/27EEPS of ¥683.0（FY3/26RiskPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. ¥699.8). Fair-value P/E of 15x is the FY25 SPE stock forecast average. •Change in valuation due to shift in macro money flow•Semiconductor capex fluctuations•Contraction of business opportunities due to shift in semiconductor package processes•Reduced FPD investment•Changes in semiconductor export restrictions due to US/China trade friction•Global macroeconomic downturn and drop in semiconductor end-demand due to Trumptariffs, impact on customer capex4Q Results4Q sales totaled ¥24.3bn (+24% YoY) and OP ¥4.8bn (+35%). Results beat upwardly revisedguidance issued on 19 Mar (sales ¥23.4bn, OP ¥4.5bn). Supported by brisk orders in 3Q, sales(percentage completion bases) and profit exceeded expectations. SPE sales were ¥20.1bn (+30%YoY). 4Q orders amounted to ¥15.3bn (flat YoY), with SPE accounting for ¥12.0bn (+13%). Orderswere -¥2.7bn vs. 3Q, when there was a large advanced package application order, but the levelremained high.FY3/25 ResultsFY3/25 sales totaled ¥80.9bn (+20% YoY) a