全球内存：内存追踪报告（5月）：价格仍在上涨，DRAM涨幅更大，NAND涨幅较小

To help investors follow the short-term memory market, we publish this monthly tracker(download datasethere) to summarize spot and contract price data released by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compare that with our model & investor expectation. Additionally, we alsotrack memory monthly ASP data from WSTS, which can be foundhere.DDR4 price increase accelerated in May with supply entering end-of-life (EOL).Spot price: PC DDR4 spot prices shot up by 50% MoM, as supply diminished followingthe announcements of EOL. Server DDR4 spot prices also rose by 12% MoM. DDR5 priceswere mostly stable in both PC and Server.Contract price: DDR4 contract prices rose notably in May also driven by EOL and DDR5prices were stable or up slightly. May contracts indicated the conventional DRAM ASP in2QCY25 to rise by 5.4% QoQ, with 10-15% for PC, 3% for Server, ~7% for Mobile & ~7%for Consumer. The price recovery was earlier than our latest forecast and with growingHBM, the overall blended DRAM price will be even stronger. However, TrendForce alsoobserved that customers remained mostly cautious towards 2HCY25 end demand, whichmay be negatively impacted by the demand pull-in in 2QCY25 and also uncertainty fromtariffs.NAND wafer contract price increase slowed down in May.Spot price: NAND wafer spot prices remained mostly stable in May.Contract price: Wafer contract price increase decelerated to 1-3% MoM in May, afterrapid rise in the previous 2 months, but still implied 19% increase compared to 1QCY25level. Buying interest cooled down as prices recovered but wafer supply remained tightas vendors directed more production to SSDs. For eMMC/UFC used principally in Mobile,contracts set in April showed 2QCY25 ASP to rise by 6-9% QoQ, driven by demand pull-in and production cuts. Contracts for wafer & Mobile NAND together indicated 13% priceincrease QoQ, but the overall ASP won’t move as much as SSD isn’t in our samples & hassteadier prices. More importantly, the demand pull-in and tariff risk could lead to softerdemand into 2HCY25.In summary, DDR4 price increase accelerated and conventional memory contractprices continued indicating a recovery in 2QCY25, but a downside risk to 2HCY25demand remains, especially for NAND.Pull-forward demand contributed the recovery,but it could also result in weaker demand in 2HCY25. TrendForce observed that customersare indeed cautious on 2HCY25, as tariffs remain an overhang on end demand. So overallwe remain a bit cautious on memory prices into 2HCY25 & even more into CY26, especiallyfor NAND. DRAM’s pricing environment is notably better thanks to HBM, and HBM 12hiramp up is another kick to ASP. SeeGlobal Memory: Price inflection around the cornerfor our most recent update.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating005930.KS (SEC)O005935.KS (SEC-Pref)OSMSN.LIO000660.KS (SK hynix)OMUOASIAXEMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedMU estimate is Adjusted EPS; MU valuation is Adjusted P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSSamsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 82,000.SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 240,000.Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$120.00.GLOBAL MEMORY DETAILSTrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe May 2025 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory PriceTracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average ASPchange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples & will be additionally considered so that we can compare the overall ASP with ourprojection. We also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Please feel free to downloadour industry and company models from the links below. Additionally, we find the price data from WSTS possesses good predictivepower and also track thathere.•CoWoS/HBM Model•DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron ModelIn May DDR4 prices increased notably. Overall contracts reached in the month indicated a solid ASP recovery forconventional DRAM overall in 2QCY25.•Spot price:•PC DRAM: PC DDR4 chip spot price increase accelerated significantly and price jumped up by 50% MoM. DDR5 pricewas however mostly stable MoM (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5,Exhibit 6). The strength of DDR4 price continuedto be driven mostly by planned EOL (end of life) at all the major vendors and therefore reduced supply. This led to a suddendecline in order fulfillment rate at the module houses and spot prices quickly went up as a result. As of the end of May,DDR4 spot price was nearly the same as DDR5, but may climb even higher given the shortage.•Server DRAM: Server DRAM spot market also saw DDR4 price