拉丁美洲 日报

Alejandro Anibal Demichelis * | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.comInigo Vega * | Equity Analyst+34 910769995 | ivega@jefferies.comPedro Baptista * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.comAlex Wright ^ | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8368 | awright5@jefferies.comAntonio Pedro Cardoso, CFA ^ | EquityAssociate+44 (0)20 7029 8748 | acardoso@jefferies.comFrancisco Barbosa ‡ | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, Brazil's Treasury. Continued p.2:Argentina, Brazil banks, Brazil flows, Mexico FintechPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Brazil flows | Record foreign inflows in May (R$12bn, R$22bn YTD), more domestic outflows (R$8bn, R$21.5bn YTD).International net inflows reached R$12bn in May to close the first five monthsat R$22bn YTD. Domestic funds flows have moved in the opposite direction with R$8bn net outflowsin May and closing the first five months at -R$21.5bn net outflows.Brazil Banks | Almost one third of Brazil's adult population is using Open Banking regularly. This ismore than in some other developed markets where OB was launched much earlier. Whilst adoptionis still far from Brazil's North Star (PIX), we read the trends as encouraging. In this note we not onlyupdate market shares in consents and API data calls, but we deep dive into the bidirectional dataflows within the major players, including incumbents and Fintechs.Mexico Fintech | Recent trends of the new players' depo base.It now stands at US$9b or 4.4%share in HH deposits in the country. Nubank is leading in both backbook and frontbook in Q1 25,while it lowers contractual floor rates for demand depos as base rates expectations continue to headsouth. We also look at depo size distribution for the first time and also show full Q1 25 P&L and keyratios for four players. See note here. We also published (here) on recent trends of the key Fintechs'scredit trends.Argentina | ARS demand depos at banking system vs. wallets managed funds.Coinciding withnews last week Mercado Libre is going the bank charter route in Argentina, we put out a chartillustrating the significant market shift of wallets in the country until now. The chart compares thetrend in non-remunerated LC demand depos at the banking system level with the money managedby wallets both on-wallet and though very transactional money-market funds.Please see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Pampa (Buy) | GeoPark (Buy) | Pampa Builds 10%stake in GPRK – What’s Next?Pampa has acquired a 10.17% stake in GPRK, according to an SEC filing. We see this as anopportunistic move by Pampa. Pampa states in the filing that the stake is held for ‘investmentpurposes’, but we would not rule out a further move from Pampa, as this could help internationaliseits upstream business relatively cheaply (GPRK trades at a c.40% NAV discount). Neither Pampa norGPRK has commented on the move. We reiterate our Buy calls on both names.What’s New? Pampa becomes GPRK’s 2ndacquisition of a 10.17% stake in GeoPark (GPRK). This has been done via its wholly owned subsidiaryGASA by way of market transactions since May 15 at an average price of US$6.55/s. This has madePampa the second largest shareholder in GPRK, after founder James Park (17% stake).What are Pampa’s intentions?In our recent note ‘LatAm Oils: From Reckoning to Resilience’, weargued that LatAm E&P consolidation is a matter of time and highlighted GPRK's asset quality/valuation disconnect. Although we see Pampa’s move as highly opportunistic, given the high-profileissues faced by GPRK (failure of Argentina deal, CEO change), we are not surprised by it. Pampahas indicated that the GPRK stake is held for ‘investment purposes’ (we note that Pampa has held aminority stake in other listed companies, such as Loma Negra (NC), for several years).What could GPRK bring to Pampa?GPRK’s assets complement Pampa’s well, in our view. GPRKfeatures mostly oil reserves (98%), while Pampa’s are predominantly natural gas, though the fastdevelopment of its Rincon de Aranda block in Vaca Muerta should boost its oil reserves in the comingyears. In addition, GPRK’s assets in Colombia and Ecuador show stronger unit profitability thanPampa's Argentinean upstream assets – reflecting the gas/oil mix – and could help internationaliseits upstream business. Importantly, at this stage, this could be done relatively cheaply: GPRK tradeson 2.1x EV/EBITDA 2025E and at US$8.1/boe of 2P reserves and ac.40% NAV discount. As such,we would not rule out a further move by Pampa in time.Could Pampa help revive GPRK’s deal in Argentina?We believe that the failure of GPRK’s VacaMuerta shale acquisition has raised some question marks over the deal's approval process and therole