拉丁美洲 日报

Inigo Vega * | Equity Analyst+34 910769995 | ivega@jefferies.comAlejandro Anibal Demichelis * | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.comPedro Baptista * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.comAlex Wright ^ | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8368 | awright5@jefferies.comAntonio Pedro Cardoso, CFA ^ | EquityAssociate+44 (0)20 7029 8748 | acardoso@jefferies.comFrancisco Barbosa ‡ | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.com Alsea (Buy) | Fireside Chat with Alsea CFO.We are hosting a virtual group meeting with FedericoRodriguez (CFO) on Tuesday, 17 June, 8am MXT | 10am EST | 3pm UK. Alsea is the largestStarbucks operator in the world with >1,900 units in 12 markets and the 2nd-largest Dominosoperator with >1,500 units in 4 markets. It also operates close to 1,000 full-service restaurants inMexico and Spain. Registration herePlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. PBR (Buy) | Confirmed non-binding offer for Braskem(NC) from Petroquímica Verde.Novonor confirmed it has entered exclusive negotiations for its stake in Braskem (NC) withPetroquímica Verde, a vehicle owned by Brazilian businessman Nelson Tanure. The non-bindingproposal is conditional on compliance with the shareholders’ agreement with Petrobras (PBR, Buy)and on the ‘satisfactory conclusion of negotiations’ with Novonor’s creditors.We note that while Braskem's gearing is at 7.9x ND/EBITDA LTM, the company indicated at 1Q25results that cash in hand is ‘sufficient to cover debt maturities over the next 33 months’. Novonorholds 38% of Braskem and 50% of the voting rights, while PBR has a 36% stake and 47% of the votingrights. PBR has not commented on the news.Alejandro Demichelis | ademichelis@jefferies.comExhibit 4 - Braskem - shareholder structure.47.0%50.1%2.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CommonSource: Company dataSQM (Buy) | 1Q25 results preview.SQM is due to report 1Q25 results tomorrow after close.Expectations look fairly tight going into the print with cons EBITDA at US$339-341m (FactSet/VisAlpha), +3% QoQ. We believe that market attention is likely to continue focusing on 1) the outlook forthe lithium market, given low prices and recent project restart announcements, and 2) the ongoinginvestigation by the Chilean congress into SQM’s agreement with Codelco for the Salar de Atacamaconcession.Alejandro Demichelis | ademichelis@jefferies.comExhibit 6 - SQM results Preview (US$ mn).SQM results Preview(US$ mn)Adj EBITDAadj NILithium sales volume('000 tons)Realised lithium price('000 US$/ton)Source: Company data; Jefferies ests; FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 21.9%36.1%22.9%38.3%55.2%25.5%PreferredTotalPBRNovonorOtherExhibit 5 - Braskem - Adj Net Debt (US$mn) vs Gearing.8.6x01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0001Q24Source: Company data; JefferiesJEF 1Q25E4Q24A1Q24AFactSetConsensusDelta vsCons.QoQYoY334328404339-2%2%-17%1511202291463%25%-34%49.658.043.5-15%14%9.29.212.60%-27% 2Q24 Lojas Quero-Quero (Buy) | Fireside Chat KeyTakeawaysIn this note, we provide our key takeaways from our fireside chat with Lojas Quero-Quero (LJQQ)CEO Peter Furukawa and CFO Jean Mello. LJQQ is one of the Brazilian companies most sensitiveto a turn in the interest cycle given its high exposure to lower-income segment consumers, salesmix and consumer credit. Cash preservation a key focus, store maturation and operating leverageto drive earnings growth. We update our estimates, a Top Pick in Latam SMIDs.Retail sales performance.After over two years of declining sales, 2024 marked a turnaround withsame-store sales (SSS) growth of 7%. SSS grew by 12.5% in 1Q25, driven by promotions, seasonaldemand (especially for appliances), and improved inventory management. While double-digit growthmay not persist due to a strong comparison base and the flood impacts mid last year, we expectmid to high single digit SSS growth this year to remain.Financial Services health.Credit has been gradually expanding while cost of risk remained undercontrol with a restrictive and conservative risk management over the past two years. Credit cardusage surged, with new stores now opening with ~1,000 credit cards from ~50 in previous years,with the new partnership with ELO and enhanced data access from the central bank.Store Expansion and Maturation.LJQQ plans to open 20–30 new stores this year, with 8 alreadyopened in Q1. Focus has been shifting from expansion to leveraging existing stores, especially the250–300 stores opened in the past five years that are still maturing. New vintages are showing bettereconomics primarily driven by improved credit card penetration. Investment per store is of R$650kto R$750k, including capex and NWC. As the market normalizes, the payback should go back