亚洲宏观透视徘徊解放日宿醉115554635

-20-10010203040Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Figure 2: ...points to correction40455055601/20227/20221/20237/20231/20247/2024VN PMI Export Orders (lhs)VN Exports (% YoY)Source : Haver Analytics, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Research Overview ……………………………….……1China…........................................................2Hong Kong…...............................................5India….........................................................7Indonesia…................................................11Malaysia…................................................13Philippines….............................................15Singapore…..............................................16South Korea..............................................18Sri Lanka...................................................20Taiwan……...............................................21Thailand…................................................22Vietnam…................................................24Asia's response to reciprocal tariffs…....26DB Macro Forecasts...............................30Growth & Inflation Heatmap……….......32EM Asia Macro Charts….......................33EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor…....35Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 -30-20-1001020304050601/2025 Page 2ChinanChina's economic activities slowed in April amid trade tensions, but theslowdown was less prominent than feared. We estimate real GDP growthslowed to 5.6% YoY in April, which marked a 0.7ppt decline from March, butnonetheless stayed above the government's 5% growth target. Industrialproduction and retail sales growth remained robust at 6.1% and 5.1%,respectively, despite some slowdown from their high readings in March.nLabor Day Holiday data in May was also encouraging. Both total tourismspending and the number of domestic travelers reached all-time highs. Asignificantsurge of 29%YoY was recorded in cross-border travel,surpassing pre-pandemic (2019) levels for the first time.nLooking forward, the economy will likely stabilize, as the US and China haveagreed to substantially de-escalate the trade war. We now think that 25-30% of additional US tariffs on Chinese products will likely be maintainedthroughout this year.nMonetary easing and accelerated fiscal spending will be supportive togrowth in the near term. A decision on potential additional stimulus/budgetrevision will likely wait until Q3.nWe revise up our GDP forecast to 4.7% for 2025 and see balanced risksaround our growth outlook.Economic slowdown was less prominent than fearedChina's economic activities slowed in April amid trade tensions, but theslowdown was less prominent than feared.We estimate real GDP growth slowedto 5.6% YoY in April, which marked a 0.7ppt decline from March, but nonethelessstayed above the government's 5% growth target. Exports expanded by 8% YoY,well above the 2% consensus. Although exports to the US fell 20% YoY, gains inASEAN (+21% YoY) and other markets compensated for this decline. Exportdeliveries declined substantially by 6.8ppt to 0.9% YoY, potentially due to reducedexport product manufacturing orders. However, industrial production remainedrobust at 6.1% YoY, likely supported by domestic demand. Services output andretail sales growth also showed resilience at 6.0% and 5.1%, respectively, despitesome slowdown from their high readings in March. Meanwhile, a softening of fixedasset investment and property sales, along with the low PPI and CPI inflation, pointto risks of further moderation in domestic demand over the coming months.Labor Day Holiday data in May was also encouraging.Chinese consumerspending on tourism increased by 8% YoY during the five-day Labor Day holiday.Both total tourism spending and the number of domestic travelers reached all-timehighs, even though per capita spending slightly lagged behind 2019 figures. Retailand dining sales saw a 6.3% YoY increase, fueled by strong sales of cars and homeappliances, benefiting from government trade-in subsidies. A significant surge of29% YoY was recorded in cross-border travel, surpassing pre-pandemic (2019)levels for the first time. East Asia (Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, and Japan)proved to be the most sought-after destinations for Chinese outbound travelers.Inbound travel by foreigners also increased significantly by 40% YoY, thanks torelaxed visa policies.Economy will likely stabilize in the coming months, as the US and China haveagreed to substantially de-escalate the trade war.The announcement made onMonday significantly exceeded expectations and will likely be positive to China’s Deutsche Bank AG/Singaporeeconomy and financial markets. For 90 days, US additional “liberation day” tariffson China will be set at 10%, effectively treating China the same as all othercountries. The 20% fentanyl-related US tariff on Chinese goods will remain,bringing US additional tariffs o